Lots of serious web surfing and phone calls with people in Sudan but for now, let me quickly go through what needs to be highlighted.
WHAT? WHEN? WHO?
The Darfurian rebel group Justice and Equality Movement mounted a bold attack on Khartoum less than two days ago but was stopped at the outskirts of the city by the Sudanese Armed Forces. It was a big battle involving helicopters and significant aerial bombardment. At the moment, things like the number of casualties and amount of damage caused are still vague.
IS THIS ATTACK GOOD?
There are very mixed and heated Sudanese sentiments over this daring move with some (mainly the Southern Sudanese and some Darfurians) staunchly supporting it and others against it.
As for me, I strongly condemn the attack. The United States and the UN have condemned it too. I’m glad they’ve made it clear they won’t accept this kind of behavior. It undermines all efforts aimed at implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and finding a political solution for Darfur. It’s a reckless move that won’t do anyone any real good. If this continues, sectarian tensions in the capital (which tribally-speaking is a very mixed city) may eventually spill over the brim. Khartoum turning into another Somalia or Baghdad is the last thing anybody needs.
MILITARY DEFECTORS?
The Sudanese military is reported to be on a heightened state of alert. More importantly however…
It is widely believed that the rebels cannot beat the well-armed government forces toe-to-toe, unless the government security forces split and soldiers defect in large numbers.
Rebel leaders said Saturday that some Sudanese military commanders had done exactly that, but the government denied it, and it was unclear late Saturday night how deep the divisions were within the Sudanese military.
The army does have many soldiers and officials who are from Darfur’s targeted tribes within its ranks so I have little doubts about defections but I do strongly suspect that the number of defectors is largely exaggerated by the rebels for propaganda purposes. Also keep in mind that the Sudanese military treats its members very well, providing them with good salaries and the best possible health care for them and their families. Most simply won’t risk losing that.
CHAD’S ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT
Following the attack, Khartoum also broke off diplomatic ties with neighboring Chad for allegedly being involved. The allegation is a real possibility. It’s a known fact that Khartoum provides support for Chadian rebels while Chad backs Darfur’s. In fact, two years ago, Khartoum was accused by Chad of being involved in an attack on the Chadian capital.
On April 14, 2006, following a first rebel attack against the Chadian capital Chad had severed diplomatic relations with Sudan.
SAVE DARFUR COALITION’S REACTION
I’m still looking forward to what Save Darfur will say about this attack. Will they support it like they’ve always supported the rebels unconditionally or will they condemn it?
Taking the capital by force is utter lunacy, especially when carried out by Islamists with strong sectarian tendencies.
In case you didn’t know, the JEM’s leadership is made up of former students of Hassan al-Turabi, the man responsible for harboring Bin Laden in Sudan.
EGYPT HELPING SUDAN MILITARILY?
On a related note, it seems that the Egyptian government is backing Khartoum which wouldn’t be surprising since relations are good.
There were signs that Egypt was showing signs of support for Khartoum on Saturday. One witness said he saw three Egyptian fighter planes and one Egyptian army cargo plane landing at the airport. The witness said he could see the Egyptian flag on the side of the planes.
Looks like Sudanese government isn’t taking any chances.
A CONSPIRACY THEORY TO KEEP YOU ENTERTAINED
There is something weird going on here but before I get into that, let me quote Andrew Heavens, a freelance writer based in Khartoum.
Khartoum has always managed to stay insulated from most of the really horrific stuff going on in the country, particularly in Darfur. When we first arrived, I lost count of the number of people who assured us that is was “the safest city in Africa”. That reputation has taken a hit in recent months with the worries about an upsurge in terrorist activity. After today, that reputation is dead and buried. For the first time, Darfur has come to Khartoum.
Precisely because it is the first time in recent history something like this has happened, people in Khartoum are panicking about it and rightly so. You should be here in my house to witness the frantic phone calls and hear the worried conversations. The city’s residents are now looking towards the government - the very government they hate - for security and comfort. If anyone is the winner in this, it is the government.
It is scary how quickly this happened. Look at any map and you’ll see that the Chadian border is a long way away from Khartoum. Two days ago, the Sudanese army put out a statement saying that a body of rebels was heading towards North Kordofan – a vast open region in between Darfur and Khartoum. Most people scoffed at the announcement saying it was a clear propaganda ploy to distract attention from the recent bombing of a Darfur school. But two days later, the guns were blazing in our back yard. The Khartoum government is now saying that they had the rebels under surveillance all the time and were totally prepared. But I can’t believe anyone thought JEM would get here in the first place, never mind this fast.
Okay now pay close attention because this is where I begin proposing my conspiracy theory. 
The government knew the rebels were advancing towards the capital days before the attack and yet they did nothing much about it. Seems to me that they might have wanted it to happen because the clear winner in this episode is the government but at this point it’s all just mere speculation.
SO WHAT’S NEXT?
I’m trying to get my hands on all the news I can, but basically Umdurman is calm calmer now although there are reports of ongoing fighting. The Sudanese military is cleaning up the mess and has been ordered to spread all over the place. They are on standby mode. On top of that, they’re also searching for Darfurian fighters who have infiltrated into the capital by changing into civilian clothes when they arrived. Dinoz over at Shamarat confirms this.
so my auntie and my uncles live in a complex thats open to a big huge 7osh! and she just saw some of the army people from the west change cloths into civilian outfits change in her own 7osh!
they dont know anything they dont know wtf is going on @ all and that is pissing me off we are hearing shot guns in the backround!!
The next few days will be important to keep track of. More attacks are rumored to be expected. Also, this whole talk of divisions within the government, infiltration and possible defectors in the military should be followed but like I said, at this point the exact details are still vague. There are too many conflicting stories floating around but what I’ve published for you here is the bulk of the matter.
JEM’s assault shows that Khartoum might be becoming vulnerable. However, I don’t think JEM are so stupid to actually believe they can take over the capital. If anything, their attack might have been designed for big headlines and psychological impact but still, it was dumb because they’ve just lost themselves a lot of support and sympathy in Khartoum.
I’m going to repeat what I’ve said previously again. This whole Darfur conflict isn’t a case of Good Rebels Vs Bad Government. Oh no it isn’t. It’s a case of Bad Rebels Vs Worse Government.
WHERE ARE YOU JOHN GARANG?
Can somebody please raise Garang back from the dead and bring him again to us? Pretty please?
We need the guy and his genuine vision for a New Sudan, a just and democratic Sudan with a transparent government representative of all Sudanese more than ever today.
