Darfur

SCROLL DOWN for updates.

Big news people!

Lots of serious web surfing and phone calls with people in Sudan but for now, let me quickly go through what needs to be highlighted.

WHAT? WHEN? WHO?

The Darfurian rebel group Justice and Equality Movement mounted a bold attack on Khartoum less than two days ago but was stopped at the outskirts of the city by the Sudanese Armed Forces. It was a big battle involving helicopters and significant aerial bombardment. At the moment, things like the number of casualties and amount of damage caused are still vague.

Pictures here.

IS THIS ATTACK GOOD?

There are very mixed and heated Sudanese sentiments over this daring move with some (mainly the Southern Sudanese and some Darfurians) staunchly supporting it and others against it.

As for me, I strongly condemn the attack. The United States and the UN have condemned it too. I’m glad they’ve made it clear they won’t accept this kind of behavior. It undermines all efforts aimed at implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and finding a political solution for Darfur. It’s a reckless move that won’t do anyone any real good. If this continues, sectarian tensions in the capital (which tribally-speaking is a very mixed city) may eventually spill over the brim. Khartoum turning into another Somalia or Baghdad is the last thing anybody needs.

MILITARY DEFECTORS?

The Sudanese military is reported to be on a heightened state of alert. More importantly however…

It is widely believed that the rebels cannot beat the well-armed government forces toe-to-toe, unless the government security forces split and soldiers defect in large numbers.

Rebel leaders said Saturday that some Sudanese military commanders had done exactly that, but the government denied it, and it was unclear late Saturday night how deep the divisions were within the Sudanese military.

The army does have many soldiers and officials who are from Darfur’s targeted tribes within its ranks so I have little doubts about defections but I do strongly suspect that the number of defectors is largely exaggerated by the rebels for propaganda purposes. Also keep in mind that the Sudanese military treats its members very well, providing them with good salaries and the best possible health care for them and their families. Most simply won’t risk losing that.

CHAD’S ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT

Following the attack, Khartoum also broke off diplomatic ties with neighboring Chad for allegedly being involved. The allegation is a real possibility. It’s a known fact that Khartoum provides support for Chadian rebels while Chad backs Darfur’s. In fact, two years ago, Khartoum was accused by Chad of being involved in an attack on the Chadian capital.

On April 14, 2006, following a first rebel attack against the Chadian capital Chad had severed diplomatic relations with Sudan.

SAVE DARFUR COALITION’S REACTION

I’m still looking forward to what Save Darfur will say about this attack. Will they support it like they’ve always supported the rebels unconditionally or will they condemn it?

Taking the capital by force is utter lunacy, especially when carried out by Islamists with strong sectarian tendencies.

In case you didn’t know, the JEM’s leadership is made up of former students of Hassan al-Turabi, the man responsible for harboring Bin Laden in Sudan.

EGYPT HELPING SUDAN MILITARILY?

On a related note, it seems that the Egyptian government is backing Khartoum which wouldn’t be surprising since relations are good.

There were signs that Egypt was showing signs of support for Khartoum on Saturday. One witness said he saw three Egyptian fighter planes and one Egyptian army cargo plane landing at the airport. The witness said he could see the Egyptian flag on the side of the planes.

Looks like Sudanese government isn’t taking any chances.

A CONSPIRACY THEORY TO KEEP YOU ENTERTAINED

There is something weird going on here but before I get into that, let me quote Andrew Heavens, a freelance writer based in Khartoum.

Khartoum has always managed to stay insulated from most of the really horrific stuff going on in the country, particularly in Darfur. When we first arrived, I lost count of the number of people who assured us that is was “the safest city in Africa”. That reputation has taken a hit in recent months with the worries about an upsurge in terrorist activity. After today, that reputation is dead and buried. For the first time, Darfur has come to Khartoum.

Precisely because it is the first time in recent history something like this has happened, people in Khartoum are panicking about it and rightly so. You should be here in my house to witness the frantic phone calls and hear the worried conversations. The city’s residents are now looking towards the government - the very government they hate - for security and comfort. If anyone is the winner in this, it is the government.

It is scary how quickly this happened. Look at any map and you’ll see that the Chadian border is a long way away from Khartoum. Two days ago, the Sudanese army put out a statement saying that a body of rebels was heading towards North Kordofan – a vast open region in between Darfur and Khartoum. Most people scoffed at the announcement saying it was a clear propaganda ploy to distract attention from the recent bombing of a Darfur school. But two days later, the guns were blazing in our back yard. The Khartoum government is now saying that they had the rebels under surveillance all the time and were totally prepared. But I can’t believe anyone thought JEM would get here in the first place, never mind this fast.

Okay now pay close attention because this is where I begin proposing my conspiracy theory.

The government knew the rebels were advancing towards the capital days before the attack and yet they did nothing much about it. Seems to me that they might have wanted it to happen because the clear winner in this episode is the government but at this point it’s all just mere speculation.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

I’m trying to get my hands on all the news I can, but basically Umdurman is calm calmer now although there are reports of ongoing fighting. The Sudanese military is cleaning up the mess and has been ordered to spread all over the place. They are on standby mode. On top of that, they’re also searching for Darfurian fighters who have infiltrated into the capital by changing into civilian clothes when they arrived. Dinoz over at Shamarat confirms this.

so my auntie and my uncles live in a complex thats open to a big huge 7osh! and she just saw some of the army people from the west change cloths into civilian outfits change in her own 7osh!

they dont know anything they dont know wtf is going on @ all and that is pissing me off we are hearing shot guns in the backround!!

The next few days will be important to keep track of. More attacks are rumored to be expected. Also, this whole talk of divisions within the government, infiltration and possible defectors in the military should be followed but like I said, at this point the exact details are still vague. There are too many conflicting stories floating around but what I’ve published for you here is the bulk of the matter.

JEM’s assault shows that Khartoum might be becoming vulnerable. However, I don’t think JEM are so stupid to actually believe they can take over the capital. If anything, their attack might have been designed for big headlines and psychological impact but still, it was dumb because they’ve just lost themselves a lot of support and sympathy in Khartoum.

I’m going to repeat what I’ve said previously again. This whole Darfur conflict isn’t a case of Good Rebels Vs Bad Government. Oh no it isn’t. It’s a case of Bad Rebels Vs Worse Government.

WHERE ARE YOU JOHN GARANG?

Can somebody please raise Garang back from the dead and bring him again to us? Pretty please?

We need the guy and his genuine vision for a New Sudan, a just and democratic Sudan with a transparent government representative of all Sudanese more than ever today.

UPDATE: It looks like my hunch about that conspiracy I smell might be right. lo2lo2a over at Shamarat shares this:

… it was explained to me logically, and it makes sense to me. If the Sudanese Government had destroyed the rebels in Darfur, or worse, in Kordofan, it would have landed itself in deep s*** with everyone for killing Darfurians/Tchadians for no legitimate reason, validating the accusations of “genocide”. By waiting until the rebels had reached Khartoum, the government could attack them, in defence of itself and its civilians, by rightly saying that they were actually threatened by them - thus silencing any genocide accusations.

Hmmm… looks very possible and seems to make sense. Wait for them to arrive in Khartoum and use “defending the capital and its civilians” as an excuse to destroy the rebels. Or it could just be because high-ranking defectors in the military didn’t want to do anything about it. Or… whatever.

The definite answer is nobody knows for sure. At this point there are a number of stories and explanations taking shape.

Meanwhile Islamist leader Turabi has been arrested following the attack by JEM.

Also, Eric Reeves from the ‘Save Darfur’ camp has written a commendable article about the recent atrocious bombing by Khartoum in Darfur which killed kids at a school. There is one problem though. Reeves doesn’t mention a single word about JEM’s attack, choosing only to focus on Khartoum’s brutality and hence continues his unconditional support for the rebels.

I’ve been following the ongoing negotiations between Khartoum and the US envoy to Sudan closely. Can you blame me? Normalizing ties would be a huge positive and mutually-beneficial step.

I’m glad America has the right conditions in place.

April 14, 2008 (KHARTOUM) — The US special envoy for Sudan is expected to hold a meeting with a Sudanese delegation in Roma Italy on Wednesday to discuss the deployment of Darfur peacekeeping force and the bilateral relations.

… The US Administration wants Sudan to remove obstacles to the deployment of a U.N.-led peacekeeping force, stop violence against civilians in Darfur, and carry out the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between north and south Sudan, including elections in 2009, The Los Angels Times reported last month.

The U.S. offered to restore full diplomatic ties, lift sanctions and remove Khartoum from Washington’s list of state sponsors of terrorism, Williamson said.

What we’re seeing here is a typical “carrots and sticks” approach which rests the decision upon Khartoum’s shoulders. I doubt that’s enough to move the Sudanese regime although with the approaching possible election of a Donkey president, they know they need to fix things fast. Like I said:

… given that it’s the Democrats who’ve been calling for a withdrawal from Iraq and a forced military intervention in Darfur, I’m not exactly ready to comfortably embrace Obama just yet. Darfur needs a political solution. Going back to Clinton’s approach is the last thing Sudan needs. Bush’s is better although it lacks sufficient pressure now because al-Bashir’s regime is heavily cooperating with the CIA again in sharing highly valuable terrorism-related intelligence. Moreover, last year the CIA convened in Khartoum at a conference attended by more than 50 African intelligence agencies.

Carrots and sticks isn’t pressure. It’s a form of seduction. I think that’s the most the Bush administration will do since it would like the valuable intelligence on terrorism to continue flowing in from Khartoum.

I hope Khartoum finds what’s on the table seducing enough.

Meanwhile, I continue to keep track of the developments involving current efforts directed at Sudan by the US administration and the US presidential race.

Dear readers familiar with Darfur,

anybody interested in posting once in a while over at Darfur-Awareness? A reader emailed me in today expressing disappoint over the lack of updates there. She’s right and I take full responsibility for that. I’ve gotten awfully busy lately and the frequency of posts is far from enough. I can hardly keep up with my online responsibilities for now thanks to being a final semester student and the book I’m writing.

Any volunteers? Please drop me an email and let me know if you’re willing to kindly help.

An excellent, insightful piece by a member of the Darfur rebel group, JEM, elaborating their stance on the whole issue. On a related note, let’s see what a Western aid worker in Darfur wrote about a week ago:

A few days ago a prominent rebel leader in Darfur, Abdel Wahid Al-Nur, the head of the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), announced that his group was opening an office in Tel Aviv, Israel.

… A few days ago, in the town where I now live in Darfur, the government went to great lengths to make sure the entire population knew of Abdul Wahid’s terrible transgressions and put all its power into organizing a street protest. Sound cars were sent down every street in every neighborhood - including the refugee camps - in an effort to stir up the population. And, as seems to be common practice in autocratic countries, the government strongly suggested if not required that its employees attend the planned protest.

Well, I think the government minions were probably the only ones who ended up going. The protest collected about 700 people – many half-heartedly chanting and carrying banners. State radio broadcast the speeches that followed.

No surprise there really. Just like I expected. The following also doesn’t shock me since I knew for a while that this was going on in Darfur:

… I talked to one of my Sudanese co-workers, a “non-Arab”. He said, “The government thinks that we will be upset about this because Israel has killed Arabs. But we don’t care. We’re not Arab.” Not very diplomatic… but again, the people of Darfur seem to feel very little loyalty to or identity with the Khartoum government. Oh, and the religious manipulation didn’t seem to get very far either.

There’s nothing wrong in being an Arab. I myself am an Arab… a Nubian-Arab, so it’s not like I’m overjoyed by things like this (and I’m not necessarily saddened either). If I am a little saddened then it’s because of the guy’s blunt reply. Just because I’m an Afro-Arab doesn’t mean I don’t care about the plight of Kurds for example, but I guess Darfurians have way too much to worry about to care about the plight of other people, so it’s understandable.

If anything, I think it’s interesting that Arabized African Muslims in Darfur are increasingly shedding their political Arab identity. It’s expected anyway. The policies of forced Arabization carried out by Khartoum governments for many years since Sudan’s independence will continue to increasingly backfire if the regime keeps up what it’s doing in places like Darfur and Nubia.

Here we go again:

March 3, 2008 (LONDON) – Darfur rebel movement has accused the Sudanese army of painting tanks of UN Hybrid force saying it plans to attack its position in West Darfur.

Hehehe, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s true. Yaay to the Sudanese army!

Oh my, this is big. Non-signatory to the Darfur peace agreement, Abdul-Wahid Al-Nur announced that his break-away SLM rebel faction has inaugurated an office in Israel!

February 25, 2008 (PARIS) — A Darfur rebel group announced today that they have inaugurated an office in Israel, according to a press release received today by Sudan Tribune.

… “The office was created by some of the SLM members who sought refuge in Israel from the killings by the Sudanese government. This is our normal practice in any part of the world where we have a presence” the rebel leader said.

“We believe in transparency with our people. We have nothing to hide or be ashamed of” he added.

Read the whole article here.

On one hand I see this as a huge reckless move on Abdul-Wahid’s part. He’s known for making outlandish statement such as demanding that Darfur becomes an entirely new and seperate country.

Hasn’t he even thought about the consequences this could have for the plight of Darfurians in the eyes of Northern Sudanese, Arabs and Muslims? Even the SPLM was secretive about its cooperation with Israel during the North-South civil war but then again, it’s not like most Arabs and Muslims even cared in the first place since they believe Darfur is nothing but an exaggerated tale told by the Zionist-controlled media, which brings me to the other side of things.

The Sudanese government is going to milk this whole thing dry. It’s already starting to. We can all kiss-goodbye any attempt to convince the skeptics and conspiracy theorists that Darfur is indeed witnessing death and destruction. I’m also afraid that sympathetic people will eventually turn their backs and walk away with a bitter taste in their mouth.

Personally, to me, whether Israel is meddling in our affairs and providing support to Darfur’s rebels or not shouldn’t matter much because it doesn’t change the fact that Darfurians today are suffering terribly. It doesn’t change the fact that they went through hell and it’s doesn’t change the fact that this is not some overblown story.

I don’t think any sane person can deny the greater suffering endured by Southern Sudanese during the civil war regardless of the fact that Israel supported the SPLM. What people are a lot more aware of is the support that was provided to Southerners by the Clinton administration. On one hand I’m glad my fellow oppressed people in the South found a way to fight and defend themselves but on the other, I didn’t like the arrangement because all it did was prolong the war. That’s why I believe in this instance, Bush deserves praise no matter how “unpraisable” he might seem. The United States, under his administration, dedicated a lot of time and resources to ending the North-South civil war, and they did.

So what’s Israel’s role, if any? Is it distant or deeply intertwined? I can’t help but wonder. After all, here you have a person leading a rebellion, and is very open to establishing relations with Israel. Hello, he says so openly. Even the SPLM knows better. I’m sure what he says must be music to Israel’s ears.

I’d say Abdul-Wahid is underestimating al-Bashir’s NCP. Unlike the SPLM, Darfur’s rebels aren’t even unified to begin with. Plus given his previously outlandish statements, I’m tempted to label him “reckless”.

The repercussions of this very daring - and open - move will be interesting (and I admit, amusing) to watch.

“Oh no, China isn’t doing anything. It’s playing no role whatsoever.”

Right.

Interesting points of view.

Like I said, the 2008 Olympics are already tainted. Plus, China’s “no strings attached” investment policy isn’t exactly nice. It benefits African governments but does no real favors to the people themselves. We Africans should investment serious time and effort in understanding China’s intentions towards our continent.

Due to Africa’s lack of understanding of the character and real intentions of China, its relationship with the emerging Asian giant remains largely unbalanced and unfavourable to the interests of the African people.

Right on.

Ahahahahaha! It’s true!

Check out AK’s post for more. Like I said, the coming Beijing 2008 Olympic Games are already too tainted.

Seriously, let’s move the games to Taiwan.

Let’s hope he actually manages to achieve something (besides screwing up relations more)…

Deng Alor said that he will discuss during the visit a number of issues with US officials, including the relations between Khartoum and Washington and ways to normalize them, Darfur issue and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Good luck ya zool. And meanwhile…

February 4, 2008 (KHARTOUM) — Sudan has postponed the signing of legal framework of Darfur hybrid peacekeeping operation saying a date would be determined later.

Here we go again, doing what we do best.

Yes, tell them. Please tell them. And when Egyptian soldiers shoot Darfurians trying to cross into Israel and beat them to death it’s just a blip on the radar.

The news is more than a week old. AK has a simple, straight to the point analysis. Nice!

On the 4th of August this year, China’s capital, Beijing, will witness the opening ceremony of the 2008 Olympics. The fact that activist groups - ones supportive of the struggles of the people of Tibet, Burma and Darfur - are calling for a boycott is old news. The question of whether they should be staunchly supported or not is what hangs onto my mind but before that…

I present to you the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games’ slogan: “One World One Dream”.

“One World One Dream” fully reflects the essence and the universal values of the Olympic spirit — Unity, Friendship, Progress, Harmony, Participation and Dream. It expresses the common wishes of people all over the world, inspired by the Olympic ideals, to strive for a bright future of Mankind.

Bla, bla, bla. Okay, we get it. It’s just so, ah, very deeply moving.

[click to continue...]

And the previous denials stop:

January 10, 2008 (KHARTOUM) — Sudan acknowledged Thursday that its troops shot at a United Nations convoy in Darfur, reversing an initial denial, but it in part blamed the peacekeepers saying they should have notified Khartoum of their movements.

The Sudanese government has demanded that the joint U.N.-African Union peacekeeping force give it prior notification for all its movements and not move at night, conditions the United Nations has rejected.

There will be more of these conditions. Anything that slows down the deployment or restricts the force’s freedom of mobility is good for the government.

Too Huge World has more about this. He calls it “comedy”. How true.