Darfur

Really? Where?

*Yawn*

I though I’d share this comment I made over at AfricanLoft so that you guys can get a better understanding of my stance on the ICC. I’m replying to BRE, a fellow African blogger whom I’d like to thank for his kind and encouraging support. You can see the exchange I had with him over here.

Believe me BRE, I hate the bastard more than you do. I still remember the “lovely” old days in Khartoum and I know well the pain family members had to go through under this regime, but I think you’re being short-sighted.

I don’t have much faith in the UN or the ICC like you do. Plus, keep in mind that we’ve got beloved Russia and China on the UN Security Council.

However, let’s say you’re right, and Bashir does indeed go down. Let’s just consider that the UN and the ICC finally get enough balls to actually *do* things and *enact* them. What happens next? Are we even prepared for that? Just look at Darfur’s rebels. They’re so divided, it’s frustrating and sometimes even utterly pathetic that it makes me sad. Look at the tensions within the SPLM. With a power vacuum and people emboldened, you can easily have a very nasty situation.

I liked how pressure was being applied systematically when the Bush administration’s focus was adequate and Sudan’s hero, John Garang was still alive. There was a clear long term agenda, and more importantly it was getting implemented step by step. It wasn’t the kind of thing that risked chaos.

“You’re looking at a regime change in Khartoum Dude, or at least a change of the head-of-state.”

No BRE, I disagree. What we’re seeing now is a clumsy strategy that’s very risky and can cause huge potential chaos. Think Somalia, but on a larger scale. Regime change entails a plan or at least a good idea on how a new entity replaces the old one. Once all these people staunchly backing the ICC tell me of how the replacement is going to happen relatively “smoothly” without a Somalia-like scenario, I might be willing to change my mind. Until then, me not convinced.

Yup, me not convinced, but… I’m all ears. Thoughts?

Yes, Sudan’s internet generation is alive and well on Facebook, not so much the blogosphere anymore.

Here’s my GV roundup.

The Facebook group is called “معا ضد المحكمة الجنائية الدولية . فلنتحد لنصرة الرئيس عمر البشير” (translated, “Together Against the ICC. Let’s Unite for President Omar al-Bashir’s Victory”) and I honestly don’t know whether to laugh or cry. The only thing that gave me some decent hope was the quality of rational debate amongst a sizeable minority of group members. As for the others, I don’t even know where to start, but it was the same, old, typical, ridiculous garbage. Reactionary nationalism. Jewish conspiracy theories. Rejecting responsibility by pointing to Bush, Bush and more Bush, when the topic is Darfur. Turabi-loving Islamists. You name it.

My favorite argument, one which I thought to be extremely unique, was someone basically arguing that the ICC’s decision is based on secular laws and not God’s laws, therefore it’s haram (sinful) to support the ICC in any way.

Kudos to the group’s creator though for keeping the group open to all kinds of diverse opinions even retarded ones or ones he didn’t agree with. I’ll be posting quotes from Sudanese blogs, the Facebook group (and other Facebook groups I can find) soon for a roundup post at Global Voices. But for now, the two pictures sum up the extremes of Sudanese opinion on the matter rather well.

Guess which picture is my favorite?

Good luck Mr. Darfur Mediator. You’re going to need it.

The new peace envoy is expected to be based in Khartoum something the US said “will facilitate continual interaction with all parties”.

“We call on all parties and regional actors to fully cooperate with Mr. Bassole, cease hostilities, and engage without condition in efforts to achieve a lasting peace for Darfur” the State Department said.

The prospects for a quick return to the negotiation table in Darfur appear slim, observers say particularly after an attack by the Darfur Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) on the Sudanese capital.

Khartoum said it will not negotiate with JEM and urged the world to designate it as a terrorist organization.

Man, where do I start? How about, that last hilarious sentence? Ah, never mind.

Yes, JEM is a stupid “terrorist” organization. On top of that, we have a regime that has no proper respect for agreements. Plus, we also have someone by the name of Abdul Wahid Al-Nur heading his Darfur rebel faction from the comfort of his residence in Paris and claiming that the only way forward is to eradicate the current government.

Thank you Dick Cheney, Rumsfailed, Iran and Saudi Arab for ruining Iraq and diverting the Bush administration’s attention away from Sudan. Oh and congratulations dear President Omar al-Bashir and head of Sudanese Intelligence, Salah Gosh for managing to ease America’s pressure on you by handing out the CIA some valuable anti-terrorism candy and helping it heavily by planting spys in Iraq and Somalia. Nicely played guys, nicely played.

Yeah, seriously Mr. Darfur Mediator GOOD luck, you’re really going to need it!

An interesting a piece by SLM’s head Abdul Wahid Al-Nur, published at the Wall Street Journal. He makes it utterly clear that in SLM’s eyes the only way forward is to eradicate the current regime.

It is inconceivable that the racist, Islamo-fascist regime in Khartoum can reform itself. It must disappear. Did the world ever attempt to “reform” the Nazi regime?

We must prevail to preserve the unity of Sudan. In a truly democratic and secular Sudan, neither the South, nor Darfur, nor any other region would be tempted to secede. We must prevail to eliminate the presence of terrorist groups, such as al Qaeda and Hamas, which are guests of the regime in Khartoum. We must prevail to stabilize the region and spread democracy.

We must prevail to help Sudan return to its natural, legitimate geopolitical place — which is the African continent and not the Arab or Muslim world. At the same time, we must forge new alliances, no longer based upon race or religion, but upon shared values of freedom and democracy. This is why we opened a representative office in Israel last February.

We know we can prevail over a regime which, despite its appearances, is weak. We are well-organized and increasingly popular throughout the country. With the help of those who share our values and cherish freedom, victory is within reach.

His article is cleverly written for an American audience. Some parts of it are not factual but merely designed to gather more support for SLM. On top of that, he leaves some questions unanswered. Overall though, it certainly is an interesting piece.

There is more to comment on. Hopefully I’ll do it later if I have time.

(hat tip: Sigmund, Carl and Alfred)

UPDATE:

1. Terrorists aren’t guests of this regime anymore really, at least not in the sense that it harbors them (Hamas people do drop by from time to time and the government is lenient about it). Today, the regime’s focus is investment, investment and more investment. Terrorists are bad for business. Plus, keep in mind the heavy cooperation between the CIA and the Sudanese intelligence.

2.  Most Sudanese are Muslims and most speak Arabic. Reversing what happened is the equivalent of saying ludicrous things like “the United States should go back to its natural state which was Indian and not white.” It’s been hundreds of years already. Sudan is Afro-Arab. Period.

Surprise? This shouldn’t be. We all knew this was going on now:

Communications Minister Mahamat Hissene told the BBC that the garrison town of Ade had been attacked by ground troops supported by helicopters.

Mr Hissene said the fighting was continuing and confirmed a rebel raid on the smaller town of Am Zoer.

Last month, Sudan accused Chad of helping a Darfur rebel group attack a city just outside the Sudanese capital.

Chad denied the allegation but the UN says Sudan and Chad have been fighting a proxy war through each other’s rebel groups.

It would become a horrendous situation if the beef between Sudan and Chad intensified big time. Darfurians already have enough of a headache (an understatement).

What? You think that’s ridiculous? Rubbish. If al-Bashir says the International Criminal Court is a terrorist organization, then it most definitely is a terrorist organization. End of discussion. Understood?

June 10, 2008 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese president Omar Hassan Al-Bashir reiterated today his country’s rejection of calls to hand over two Darfur war crimes suspects to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“We view the ICC as a first class terrorist organization” Al-Bashir told Al-Sa’aa” Egyptian TV in an interview.

Yeah, show them Bashir. Show these bastards what they need to hear. More tough talk please. I beg you. Keep it coming. You’re the man!

Oh yeah. Thumbs up!

The Sudanese government obviously isn’t happy.

You can watch the statement made by all three candidates here. Nice!

As many of you may be able to recall, I wasn’t exactly a big fan of the Save Darfur Coalition thanks to how they were calling for forced military intervention, something which can only have short-term benefits. Their position has shifted and is now focused on enforcing and implementing the pertinent UN resolutions.

Also after JEM’s attack on Khartoum, I was waiting for their reaction and I was a little surprised when I finally received it. Unlike previously, they didn’t provide unconditional political support to Darfur’s rebels. Instead they made it clear sathey were against the attack.

Good.

I gotta say I like the new Save Darfur a lot better than the old one. On top of that I commend them for pursuing this symbolic but significant statement from all presidential candidates. Hopefully they’ll continue their efforts to make Darfur (and by extension the CPA) visible issues during the US election.

P.S.: You might have already noticed the new widget on the sidebar. I endorse the S.E.A.L. initiative and believe it’s a very good approach. Go ahead, have a look at it and if you like it, endorse it too. I encourage you to.

I’ve been happily exchanging emails behind the scenes to get you all some insider information on the great life-saving work carried out in Darfur by the humanitarian organization AmeriCares. The following are answers by Christoph Gorder, AmeriCares’ VP of Emergency Response to the few questions I asked. If you have any extra questions, feel free to add them in the comments section and I’ll try and get them answered in a potential interview I might do with the CEO of AmeriCares in the future. Anyways, for now, enjoy this insider-info.

Is it more costly to fly directly into Darfur ?

Guessing the question really is: “Is it more costly to fly directly into West Darfur than into Khartoum , and then deliver goods overland to Darfur ?”

Airlifts are expensive and AmeriCares airlift into West Darfur this week was no different. This airlift — our 10th — cost $130,000. And like every driver and commercial airline knows, the rising cost of fuel is severely impacting the final price tag. AmeriCares flew the same route into West Darfur in 2007 for $86,000. The cost of delivering humanitarian aid is skyrocketing.

The question of cost demonstrates the classic example of the choices, both financial and logistical, that AmeriCares makes when providing emergency relief. The situation on the ground in Darfur is so insecure that delivering the goods overland from Khartoum would put the people delivering the goods and the goods themselves at great risk. While costly, flying the supplies directly into West Darfur ensures that they are delivered into the hands of people who will use the supplies within miles of the landing site. Our main concern is saving lives and restoring health to the people of Darfur . If the option is saving money or ensuring that our aid is safely and effectively delivered, we’ll always choose the option that best guarantees assistance reaches those who need it most in a time effective manner.

How did AmeriCares manage to get permission from the Sudanese government to conduct these direct flights? Were there any difficulties AmeriCares faced in getting this permission?

As with the delivery of goods into any country, there are laws and regulations that must be followed to gain entry. It isn’t surprising that as war rages on, the Sudanese government is extremely cautious about the people and goods flowing in and out of the country. We worked closely with our partner on the ground to complete all of the necessary paperwork and gain the necessary approvals to deliver this shipment of goods. Our long-standing relationship with the Darfur ministry of health, which receives medicines and medical supplies from our airlifts, also helps to ensure we gain access and can deliver goods effectively.

AmeriCares has a long track record of working with the Sudanese government and partner organizations on the ground to deliver life-saving medicines and medical supplies. This is our 10th airlift since 2004 and we have two more airlifts planned for this year. AmeriCares believes that our respect of and adherence to government rules, strong relationships with on-the-ground partners, and supply of life-saving medicines is what allows us to continue airlifts and provide relief to people displaced by the unrest in Darfur.

What’s the positive impact these airlifts are having on the ground? Is it measurable?

AmeriCares airlifts of medicines and medical supplies save lives, prevent the spread of disease and restore health to people living in refugee camps across Darfur . Since 2004, nearly all of the pharmaceuticals distributed in West Darfur have been delivered by AmeriCares. Our deliveries include medicines to combat malaria, cholera, respiratory problems, meningitis, diarrhea, birth trauma and wound infections — all common medical conditions faced by people living in refugee camps. AmeriCares airlifts serve a displaced population of more than 400,000 in West Darfur alone. Since 2004, we’ve delivered more than 152 tons of medicines and medical supplies into North, South and West Darfur

Thank you AmeriCares for your excellent efforts. You guys are awesome!

By the way dear readers, for something relevant, let me just say I received an email from ‘Save Darfur’ a while ago responding to the questions I posed to them. Finally. They’ve also issued a statement denouncing JEM’s attack on Khartoum. It’s good to see them being critical instead of simply providing unconditional support to Darfur’s rebels.

Andrew Heavens has a nice list of possible reasons for JEM’s recent attack on Khartoum:

1. A bloody PR move to get JEM some headlines
2. Retribution – to bring some of Darfur’s suffering to Khartoum
3. Humiliation of Khartoum and exposure of holes in its security system
4. Chad-backed revenge for the two Khartoum-backed rebel raids on N’Djamena
5. The move of a mad, power-hungry warlord
6. A move to break the stalemate in the Darfur peace process AKA Operation Longarm
7. Distraction while JEM prepares for an offensive on El Geneina
8. A genuine coup attempt
9. The first stages of a coup attempt to test for support among army and opposition
10. Creating chaos in the capital leading to the breakdown of the state

As for why the rebels managed to reach all the way until Khartoum, apparently the army was prevented from properly responding due to fears of a fifth column. The defense minister actually spoke about this in parliament when he was getting grilled over his failure of protecting the capital.

Thing is, it is now clear that the battle in Umdurman wasn’t exactly fully fought between the rebels and the Sudanese army but mainly between the rebels and the Sudanese security forces who are thought to be more loyal to the government. Still though, the parliament isn’t satisfied with the defense minister’s explanation and many have demanded his resignation plus setting up an investigative committee.

WTF? This is so stupid. They’re pouring more fuel into the fire. I’m telling you, if the sectarian monster gets unleashed within Khartoum, we are going to have some very bad times ahead.

I like the SLM leader’s wise language in this one.

“The Sudanese regime should stop arresting people according to their skin color because this would only deepen the wounds of civilians who moved from Darfur to Khartoum to escape the ongoing repression that started five years ago” Al-Nur said.

… Al-Nur pointed out that rebel attack against the capital can be traced to the lack of equality among citizens of the same country. He called on Khartoum to “work seriously for peace and endorse the value of equal citizenship rights”.

The SLM chief also said Khartoum should immediately put an end to the violence against civilians in Darfur by implementing the signed ceasefire accords.

Abdel-Wahid regretted the death of Sudanese civilians everywhere in the country before saying that “it is a vicious circle started by the government and unless they show seriousness there will be no end to it”.

Khartoum knows what it needs to do. Will al-Bashir’s National Congress Party do the right thing or will they use JEM’s attack as a justification for more bombing in Darfur and carrying out further oppression against Darfurians?

I hope they’re paying attention to Al-Nur’s words. Something tells me whether they like it or not, they’ll eventually have to.

Meanwhile, Sudanese in Khartoum are rightly questioning and criticizing the government over how and why the rebels managed to reach all the way until the capital.

For necessary background on the situation, read this previous coverage.

The Arab League has come to the rescue and even called the JEM a terrorist group!

May 11, 2008 (CAIRO) — Arab League Council at the ministerial level in a meeting held today condemned the “terrorist” attack yesterday in Khartoum by the rebel Justice and Equality Movement in order to destabilize the Sudan.

Gosh, you guys are awesome! Where were you all this time when Khartoum was bombing and burning Darfur? Where were you when the women were getting raped and their children were getting mercilessly massacred? Ops, oh no wait. That’s right. It’s all ‘lies’ exaggerated by the Joooz right? None of it happened. None of it deserved an important meeting or any sort of condemnation.

Evil Jews!

SCROLL DOWN for updates.

Big news people!

Lots of serious web surfing and phone calls with people in Sudan but for now, let me quickly go through what needs to be highlighted.

WHAT? WHEN? WHO?

The Darfurian rebel group Justice and Equality Movement mounted a bold attack on Khartoum less than two days ago but was stopped at the outskirts of the city by the Sudanese Armed Forces. It was a big battle involving helicopters and significant aerial bombardment. At the moment, things like the number of casualties and amount of damage caused are still vague.

Pictures here.

IS THIS ATTACK GOOD?

There are very mixed and heated Sudanese sentiments over this daring move with some (mainly the Southern Sudanese and some Darfurians) staunchly supporting it and others against it.

As for me, I strongly condemn the attack. The United States and the UN have condemned it too. I’m glad they’ve made it clear they won’t accept this kind of behavior. It undermines all efforts aimed at implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and finding a political solution for Darfur. It’s a reckless move that won’t do anyone any real good. If this continues, sectarian tensions in the capital (which tribally-speaking is a very mixed city) may eventually spill over the brim. Khartoum turning into another Somalia or Baghdad is the last thing anybody needs.

MILITARY DEFECTORS?

The Sudanese military is reported to be on a heightened state of alert. More importantly however…

It is widely believed that the rebels cannot beat the well-armed government forces toe-to-toe, unless the government security forces split and soldiers defect in large numbers.

Rebel leaders said Saturday that some Sudanese military commanders had done exactly that, but the government denied it, and it was unclear late Saturday night how deep the divisions were within the Sudanese military.

The army does have many soldiers and officials who are from Darfur’s targeted tribes within its ranks so I have little doubts about defections but I do strongly suspect that the number of defectors is largely exaggerated by the rebels for propaganda purposes. Also keep in mind that the Sudanese military treats its members very well, providing them with good salaries and the best possible health care for them and their families. Most simply won’t risk losing that.

CHAD’S ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT

Following the attack, Khartoum also broke off diplomatic ties with neighboring Chad for allegedly being involved. The allegation is a real possibility. It’s a known fact that Khartoum provides support for Chadian rebels while Chad backs Darfur’s. In fact, two years ago, Khartoum was accused by Chad of being involved in an attack on the Chadian capital.

On April 14, 2006, following a first rebel attack against the Chadian capital Chad had severed diplomatic relations with Sudan.

SAVE DARFUR COALITION’S REACTION

I’m still looking forward to what Save Darfur will say about this attack. Will they support it like they’ve always supported the rebels unconditionally or will they condemn it?

Taking the capital by force is utter lunacy, especially when carried out by Islamists with strong sectarian tendencies.

In case you didn’t know, the JEM’s leadership is made up of former students of Hassan al-Turabi, the man responsible for harboring Bin Laden in Sudan.

EGYPT HELPING SUDAN MILITARILY?

On a related note, it seems that the Egyptian government is backing Khartoum which wouldn’t be surprising since relations are good.

There were signs that Egypt was showing signs of support for Khartoum on Saturday. One witness said he saw three Egyptian fighter planes and one Egyptian army cargo plane landing at the airport. The witness said he could see the Egyptian flag on the side of the planes.

Looks like Sudanese government isn’t taking any chances.

A CONSPIRACY THEORY TO KEEP YOU ENTERTAINED

There is something weird going on here but before I get into that, let me quote Andrew Heavens, a freelance writer based in Khartoum.

Khartoum has always managed to stay insulated from most of the really horrific stuff going on in the country, particularly in Darfur. When we first arrived, I lost count of the number of people who assured us that is was “the safest city in Africa”. That reputation has taken a hit in recent months with the worries about an upsurge in terrorist activity. After today, that reputation is dead and buried. For the first time, Darfur has come to Khartoum.

Precisely because it is the first time in recent history something like this has happened, people in Khartoum are panicking about it and rightly so. You should be here in my house to witness the frantic phone calls and hear the worried conversations. The city’s residents are now looking towards the government - the very government they hate - for security and comfort. If anyone is the winner in this, it is the government.

It is scary how quickly this happened. Look at any map and you’ll see that the Chadian border is a long way away from Khartoum. Two days ago, the Sudanese army put out a statement saying that a body of rebels was heading towards North Kordofan – a vast open region in between Darfur and Khartoum. Most people scoffed at the announcement saying it was a clear propaganda ploy to distract attention from the recent bombing of a Darfur school. But two days later, the guns were blazing in our back yard. The Khartoum government is now saying that they had the rebels under surveillance all the time and were totally prepared. But I can’t believe anyone thought JEM would get here in the first place, never mind this fast.

Okay now pay close attention because this is where I begin proposing my conspiracy theory.

The government knew the rebels were advancing towards the capital days before the attack and yet they did nothing much about it. Seems to me that they might have wanted it to happen because the clear winner in this episode is the government but at this point it’s all just mere speculation.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

I’m trying to get my hands on all the news I can, but basically Umdurman is calm calmer now although there are reports of ongoing fighting. The Sudanese military is cleaning up the mess and has been ordered to spread all over the place. They are on standby mode. On top of that, they’re also searching for Darfurian fighters who have infiltrated into the capital by changing into civilian clothes when they arrived. Dinoz over at Shamarat confirms this.

so my auntie and my uncles live in a complex thats open to a big huge 7osh! and she just saw some of the army people from the west change cloths into civilian outfits change in her own 7osh!

they dont know anything they dont know wtf is going on @ all and that is pissing me off we are hearing shot guns in the backround!!

The next few days will be important to keep track of. More attacks are rumored to be expected. Also, this whole talk of divisions within the government, infiltration and possible defectors in the military should be followed but like I said, at this point the exact details are still vague. There are too many conflicting stories floating around but what I’ve published for you here is the bulk of the matter.

JEM’s assault shows that Khartoum might be becoming vulnerable. However, I don’t think JEM are so stupid to actually believe they can take over the capital. If anything, their attack might have been designed for big headlines and psychological impact but still, it was dumb because they’ve just lost themselves a lot of support and sympathy in Khartoum.

I’m going to repeat what I’ve said previously again. This whole Darfur conflict isn’t a case of Good Rebels Vs Bad Government. Oh no it isn’t. It’s a case of Bad Rebels Vs Worse Government.

WHERE ARE YOU JOHN GARANG?

Can somebody please raise Garang back from the dead and bring him again to us? Pretty please?

We need the guy and his genuine vision for a New Sudan, a just and democratic Sudan with a transparent government representative of all Sudanese more than ever today.

UPDATE: It looks like my hunch about that conspiracy I smell might be right. lo2lo2a over at Shamarat shares this:

… it was explained to me logically, and it makes sense to me. If the Sudanese Government had destroyed the rebels in Darfur, or worse, in Kordofan, it would have landed itself in deep s*** with everyone for killing Darfurians/Tchadians for no legitimate reason, validating the accusations of “genocide”. By waiting until the rebels had reached Khartoum, the government could attack them, in defence of itself and its civilians, by rightly saying that they were actually threatened by them - thus silencing any genocide accusations.

Hmmm… looks very possible and seems to make sense. Wait for them to arrive in Khartoum and use “defending the capital and its civilians” as an excuse to destroy the rebels. Or it could just be because high-ranking defectors in the military didn’t want to do anything about it. Or… whatever.

The definite answer is nobody knows for sure. At this point there are a number of stories and explanations taking shape.

Meanwhile Islamist leader Turabi has been arrested following the attack by JEM.

Also, Eric Reeves from the ‘Save Darfur’ camp has written a commendable article about the recent atrocious bombing by Khartoum in Darfur which killed kids at a school. There is one problem though. Reeves doesn’t mention a single word about JEM’s attack, choosing only to focus on Khartoum’s brutality and hence continues his unconditional support for the rebels.