Many people are not aware that Sudan had two popular uprisings. Yes, that’s right, two damn uprisings but unfortunately both ultimately failed to bring democracy to Sudan.
However, even though they failed to democratize the nation, today their specter hangs over the regime in Khartoum.
Of all the ageing dictators in north Africa and the Middle East, Mr Bashir certainly knows the most about the potent threats of people power and popular uprisings—he has lived through two of them in Sudan. The first took place in 1964: the so-called “October revolution” ousted newly independent Sudan’s first military dictator, General Aboub. The second occurred in 1985 and toppled another military dictator, Jafar Numeiri, who had come to power in a coup in 1969. It is this uprising that will be preying on Mr Bashir’s mind today.
Indeed, and there’s been a lot of talk about this amongst us Sudanese.
Can we have a third uprising? Especially right now in this regional political climate? Given what we’ve seen in Tunisia and Egypt, I’d never rule out the possibility, but given the psychological state of the Sudanese people, I’m also cautious in my expectations.
But that’s not the important part. The key issue is, if indeed we can have a third popular uprising, what can we do differently this time so that we don’t end up repeating the mistakes of the past? And on a related note, what can Egyptian and Tunisian revolutionaries learn from the mistakes Sudan’s revolutionaries made?
To help answer these questions, I interviewed the Sudanese-born American political analyst, Musa A. Murawih, who is based in Washington DC. In his own words, he is “a formerly active, democracy activist,” and is pretty knowledgeable about Sudanese politics.
More importantly, unlike me, he lived through the 1985 popular revolution so I thought it might be nice if he shared a thing or two, and gave us his brief analysis of the recent changes in the Arab world and the possibility of democratic change occurring in Sudan.
Here’s part 1 of the interview.
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I’ll post up the remaining portions of the interview soon.
Meanwhile, leave your response in the comments section. What do you think? Do you agree with Musa’s assessment or not, and why?
Beace my beebull.
SudaneseThinker
SudaneseThinker
{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
Drima,
Interesting perspective by Murawih, and while I do agree with his analysis I think this time around the circumstances are different. Plus, it seems the Sudanese mindset has changed over the years which for me eliminates the chance of any uprising. So, if I was to predict a change in the government my guess will be an internal conflict, which will lead eventually to self imploding and thus the removal of the current regime.
I agree that the only hope for democracy to set roots in the Arab world, it must first set foot in egypt. The revolution in Egypt is still in its infancy, and what has happened so far has been a change in regime to halt the revolution.
Unfortunately the Egyptian and Tunisian activists will not learn anything from the mistakes of 1985, due to the differences in the political scenes in those countries as compared to Sudan and also due to the unwavering belief that these activists have that the 1985 mistakes do not apply to them. Example one is the call for the dissolution of state security which is happening now in both Egypt and Tunisia, which mirrors the same mistake done in 1985 which I believe led us in many ways to 1989 and where Sudan is now.
In 1985 Sudan had in place an established opposition which had experience in governance post-independence; the failure of this opposition during their periods of governance is due to the non-democratic nature of these parties, which still continues.
I don’t agree with Mr. Murawih. His division of Arab society into two blocks - traditional (tribes, etc) vs. nationalist is false. It might have been right in the past, but liberal/progressive civil society is a strong force for decades in many Middle Eastern countries (like Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Morocco). It is false to say there are just two forces and now digi-activists emerging. Civil society in the Arab world predates social media and digital activism.
I agree with Murawih’s assessment that there must be a third political force to shift the dynamics beween the traditional and nationalist blocs. Neither shows a serious commitment to radically alter Sudan’s current power structure which although stifling for parties like the DUP and UMMA, still allows them a decent amount of influence in society. Elizabeth above is correct that there have always been liberal forces who aren’t so easily co-opted. I think the Communists for one. I just can’t see Mirghani and other leaders like him putting their necks on the line when the moment of truth comes.
Salam Ashraf,
I’m interested in an elaboration from you. If anything, I think the youth today are more inclined to call for change since they’re more well informed thanks to satellite TV and the Internet compared to the youth of the old days. But as Nesrine Malik noted at The Guardian’s CiF, we as Sudanese have faced too much war and violence, and overall we’re probably more weary than others in the neighborhood to go through instability right now or anything that might risk too much chaos.
Ahmad,
It would be really interesting to watch how a viable and well-organized pro-democratic Egyptian opposition is going to rise. The NDP is still around and has lots of experience of course in running and robbing a country, while right now the MB is experiencing internal tensions and some top members have resigned. As for Sudan’s opposition, I talked about that with Musa, and I’ll post it up in part of the interview. It’s a bizzare scene in Sudan now, especially when you have the communist party allying itself with Turabi’s Islamist PCP.
Elizabeth,
Good seeing you here. You’re right to the extent that Musa could have added more nuance, but I think he was trying to keep things simple. As for your opinion on civil society, I agree, but I don’t think they were a powerful force as you make it seem. They had to deal with lots of pressure and weren’t as effective in getting their message out as the digital activists have been in recent years thanks to the online tools they’ve been using, and which the civil society crowd didn’t have back then.
Andrew,
When I read Sudanese history, I get the sense that rivalry amongst competing political parties in the old days was fierce, but in recent years, at least when you’re looking at Northern political parties (not rebel groups from Darfur, or the SPLM), there is competition but as you have noted, I’m not sure if when push comes to shove they’re willing to push hard enough and risk things. And btw, I’m curious, how come you’re this familiar with Sudanese politics?
Look at the history of France. After the original revolution in 1789, they had endless revolutions and partly democratic governments.
It could be argued that it was not until De Gaulle resigned in 1969 that France finally became a stable democracy. It’s a long haul.
Demographics are important. I doubt if you will ever get a stable democracy in a country where half the population is under 25.
Drima,
I’m just one of many in the diaspora, which tends to be a political bunch anyway for obvious reasons. I guess you have nothing but time to ponder all the historical actors and actions that led to your collective fate.
Unlike Egypt and Tunisia we Sudanese have been held hostage for soo long in our countries that we are now imprisoned subjects. We were unaware of the political possibilities and freedoms we could experience until we were exposed to the mass media of Al Jazeera and Arab Sat News Outlets. Day in and day out we listen to propaganda from militant politicians and clerics that our sins and Israel/United States are the reason why we are so impoverished. We cannot rebel because of the information onslaught and bombardment we get from the politico religious establishment has made us soo brainwashed. The government we live under has made us racist and nepotistic ( genocide in Darfur by Awlad al Bahar) the same way Germany became under Hitler. May I remind you that this is a government that supported Osama Bin Laden. If you have been to Sudan lately you will be sure to see the degradation of the epic values we pride ourselves with. You cannot protest against the holy government because you will be labeled a Kaffir. The Sudanese govt. is going bankrupt and is begging for handouts from the Iranians. Like Syria this government is ruthless and armed to the teeth thanks to the oil it stole. There is absolutely no protest or civil disobedience that can overthrow them. May I remind you that the words of one the main ministers came on the effect of ” only the one that brought us can remove us”. What the word should know is that they are not dealing with statesmen but mafia criminals. The regimes in Egypt cannot even begin to compare to these people. As you are in the West I am sure you are embarrassed and saddened by how the NCP has ruined your country’s reputation.
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