I though I’d share this comment I made over at AfricanLoft so that you guys can get a better understanding of my stance on the ICC. I’m replying to BRE, a fellow African blogger whom I’d like to thank for his kind and encouraging support. You can see the exchange I had with him over here.
Believe me BRE, I hate the bastard more than you do. I still remember the “lovely” old days in Khartoum and I know well the pain family members had to go through under this regime, but I think you’re being short-sighted.
I don’t have much faith in the UN or the ICC like you do. Plus, keep in mind that we’ve got beloved Russia and China on the UN Security Council.
However, let’s say you’re right, and Bashir does indeed go down. Let’s just consider that the UN and the ICC finally get enough balls to actually *do* things and *enact* them. What happens next? Are we even prepared for that? Just look at Darfur’s rebels. They’re so divided, it’s frustrating and sometimes even utterly pathetic that it makes me sad. Look at the tensions within the SPLM. With a power vacuum and people emboldened, you can easily have a very nasty situation.
I liked how pressure was being applied systematically when the Bush administration’s focus was adequate and Sudan’s hero, John Garang was still alive. There was a clear long term agenda, and more importantly it was getting implemented step by step. It wasn’t the kind of thing that risked chaos.
“You’re looking at a regime change in Khartoum Dude, or at least a change of the head-of-state.”
No BRE, I disagree. What we’re seeing now is a clumsy strategy that’s very risky and can cause huge potential chaos. Think Somalia, but on a larger scale. Regime change entails a plan or at least a good idea on how a new entity replaces the old one. Once all these people staunchly backing the ICC tell me of how the replacement is going to happen relatively “smoothly” without a Somalia-like scenario, I might be willing to change my mind. Until then, me not convinced.
Yup, me not convinced, but… I’m all ears. Thoughts?
SudaneseThinker
SudaneseThinker
{ 13 comments… read them below or add one }
Pretty much the same argument I made on “Global Voices Online”,……
“I love how many Sudanese believe in the American/Israeli conspiracy.
But on a serious note, what many Sudanese diaspora and vocal anti-bashir foreigners don’t realize, is that if Bashir and Co. suddenly disappear or are removed by force a sizable power vacuum is going to be created. And that’s not a situation a fragmented country like Sudan wants to be in!
Can you imagine the anarchy…imagine Somalia on a larger scale!”
Glad to see were on the same page!!
ICC surely realize this. I wonder what their interest is… increasing their brand awareness?
Nowadays having enough brand awareness and some good PR can turn you into a real power broker… they don’t have to even do anything, just bullshit a lot and issue some newsworthy proclamations.
Or it could be misguided good intentions. Or simple stupidity, incompetence, corruption or a combination thereof
I wholeheartedly agree with you, by the way. You don’t inject chaos into a system as volatile as Sudan. Not if you want the system to survive.
You make a very good point here that which I have barely seen in our discussions on the Darfur situation and the new development with Bashir.
But where goes the limits of external involvement? It all went wrong in Somalia, but in Rwanda the accusations were that the international community looked the other way.
Could you elaborate in this?
Removing Bashir suddenly and with no plan would have much the same effect as removing Saddam from Iraq, only worse.
The problem is that running a modern, democratic country (like Germany, for example) requires a large number of political, administrative and legal skills. People with these skills don’t appear overnight. There has to be a constitution with checks and balances, term limits, etc etc - and the general population has to support it.
No simple solutions, except that the methods of running a country are not secret. There are plenty of books freely available.
You make an excellent point, people should not under-estimate the chaos that could erupt in Sudan if the president is removed. I was in Sudan in 2005 when the late John Garang passed away and I remember almost immediately some people erupted in protest by burning shops and cars in the part of Omdurman where I stayed… you could see the smoke for miles! Those shops that weren’t burned were broken into and the goods stolen, there was widespread looting everywhere. Imagine the extensive chaos and anarchy that will break out if Al-Bashir is arrested, it will be on a much larger scale! It just highlights the lack of planning that went into making this decision; it can only have negative repercussions for Sudan!
I doubt that ICC realizes this. And even if it does they are not doing it for any interest. It’s just another kind of fanaticism. Human rights, democracy, political correctness and similar stuff have become a religion in its own right since decades ago. Not that I am against democracy and human rights but good things are good only as long as they don’t cause people to lose their common sense
NB - PC et al. have indeed become a religion. But you have more faith in human stupidity than you do in human cynicism, it seems. This is not the cretinous ISM helping terrorists and not even the WFP ruining African economies with wanton food aid.
This is the ICC, man. They wanna be a player. And they are not staffed with bleeding heart PC hippies - we’re talking hard-core politicians looking to make names and fortunes here. They don’t give a fuck about PC. We’re talking about the kind of people who can sit and idly sip champagne as they’re observing an unfolding genocide. They’re the kind of people who can easily let Pol Pot and Idi Amin die of ripe old age, rich and surrounded by their loved ones.
No, man. I don’t believe the ICC does anything because it’s too soft. The future Judicary Estate of the World Government is just stretching its limbs.
BTW - LTNS, NB
Damn, I love acronyms
I am not that good at acronyms but, according to what I could google on the net, LTNS stands for “Longer Than Normal Sentence”. Ok, man. I got you. I will try to improve my style.
I really enjoyed our debate over at African Loft Drima and again thank you and Kizzie for your participation. It was quite civil and very sincere, don’t you think?
The New York Times has a follow-up article (July 28th) with an accompanying video about the ICC vs. President Omar Hassan Al Bashir. I think that the NY Times article will be of great interest to you and your readers.
Have a look at the piece ‘Sudan Rallies Behind Leader Reviled Abroad’ by Lydia Polgreen and Jeffrey Gettleman. Here’s the URL to the article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/world/africa/28sudan.html
Interestingly your views on the ICC Prosecutor’s request for a warrant of arrest are in line with much of the political elite in your country, opposition parties included.
I predict (hope) that Sudan’s President Al-Bashir will follow in the footsteps of Radovan Karadzic (Bosnia-Herzegovinia, Serbia) but hey, the latter was able to dodge arrest warrants and a trip to The Hague for more than a decade. Heard that he checked into The Hague Hotel just this afternoon after losing an appeal against extradition.
The fact the a repressive government can keep order and stability is no reason to not go after its leaders for genocide.
There are capable people with skills to fill in the vacuum if the NCP falls. The Umma party and other party members and NCP technocrats will not be prosecuted. There will be no de-bathification as in Iraq where a unskilled majority replaces a skilled minority.
Bashir is a military man who really is responsible for the military style leadership of the country.
The investors will not run out of Sudan because too much is at stake. Stakeholders and institutional investors are not going anywhere.
The ICC knows full well that Sudan will not collapse like Somalia. I think the comparison to Somalia is superficial at best.
Sudan has a longer history and more developed technocrat class.
I think this is the opportunity that Sudan needs to creae a democratic society.
You have to faith in the basic goodness and tolerance of the Sudanese people not leaders holding together false unity.
Salaam
You make some very good points Ron, especially the one about capable and experienced Sudanese who are able to takeover the reigns of government. It’s a question that I have been asking myself “If al-Bashir were gone (leaving office vertically or horizontally, it doesn’t really matter to me) who would be in a position to take over in Sudan?” Who are the important political and financial players in the country and what are they capable of achieving in both the short and long term?
Word on the street is that some people are floating the idea of sending in private contractors (aka mercenaries) to bolster the UNAMID force. Erik Prince, chairman and CEO of Blackwater Worldwide Inc. (yep, that Blackwater), has offered to train an elite force of about 1000 AU soldiers at cost (or does he mean cost+?).
Here’s an excerpt from the editorial over at the Wall Steet Journal:
“Mr. Prince says that the 9,000 or so African Union soldiers in Darfur, as part of the United Nations peacekeeping force, are a good start. But he says that to be effective they need better training, communications and equipment. That is more or less the same message from a report released yesterday by the Darfur Consortium, a coalition of 50 African-based and Africa-focused NGOs. “One year ago the U.N. Security Council stood unanimous and promised Darfurians the strongest and largest protection force ever,” says a coalition spokesman. “Today that force is just over a third deployed, lacks even the most basic equipment and is unable to protect itself let alone civilians.”
Mr. Prince has a remedy. He believes that with 250 or so professionals, Blackwater can transform about a thousand of the African Union soldiers into an elite and highly mobile force. This force would also be equipped with helicopters and the kind of small planes that missionaries use in this part of the world. It would be cheaper than the hundreds of millions we are spending to set up a larger AU/U.N. force. And he says he’d do it at cost.”
Read more at the WSJ.com_________
Mercenaries for Darfur by William McGurn, 07/29/08
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121728728103991373.html
Top ranking officials at the UN (and presumably at the AU) do not like Mr. Prince’s idea. Of course they wouldn’t.
Yo Drima,
I see that you haven’t been able to write for the blog very much indicating that you are very busy, but I thought that this bit of news was important for you to know:
Sudanese distance runner Lopez Lomong, a naturalized US citizen since 2007, has been chosen by the captains of the 2008 US Olympic Team to carry the Stars & Stripes into the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. The message and symbolism behind this decision will not be lost on people around the world. Let’s see what the Beijing Olympic Committee spokesperson & government mouthpiece has to say about this blatant act of politicalization of the 2008 Olympic Games. Here are the URL’s on the story:
CNN: Former ‘Lost Boy’ to Lead U.S. Olympians in Beijing
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/08/07/flag.bearer/
Sports Illustrated
Naturalized Sudanese Lomong to be US flagbearer
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/olympics/2008/08/06/bc.oly.usflagbearer.ap/index.html
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