Andrew Heavens has a nice list of possible reasons for JEM’s recent attack on Khartoum:
- A bloody PR move to get JEM some headlines
- Retribution – to bring some of Darfur’s suffering to Khartoum
- Humiliation of Khartoum and exposure of holes in its security system
- Chad-backed revenge for the two Khartoum-backed rebel raids on N’Djamena
- The move of a mad, power-hungry warlord
- A move to break the stalemate in the Darfur peace process AKA Operation Longarm
- Distraction while JEM prepares for an offensive on El Geneina
- A genuine coup attempt
- The first stages of a coup attempt to test for support among army and opposition
- Creating chaos in the capital leading to the breakdown of the state
As for why the rebels managed to reach all the way until Khartoum, apparently the army was prevented from properly responding due to fears of a fifth column. The defense minister actually spoke about this in parliament when he was getting grilled over his failure of protecting the capital.
Thing is, it is now clear that the battle in Umdurman wasn’t exactly fully fought between the rebels and the Sudanese army but mainly between the rebels and the Sudanese security forces who are thought to be more loyal to the government. Still though, the parliament isn’t satisfied with the defense minister’s explanation and many have demanded his resignation plus setting up an investigative committee.
SudaneseThinker
SudaneseThinker
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
“A genuine coup attempt”
I wonder… would a successful JEM coup be good?
Oh hell no. Like I said, replacing this government with another that will be just as bad and most probably even worse, will be a disaster.
Remember, JEM is Islamist and its leadership consists of former students of the terrorist-loving al-Turabi. A JEM coup won’t just mean JEM alone. You’ll get along al-Turabi and his lovely political party too.
Abdul Wahid Nur’s SLM is pretty much secular.
A coalition of rebels and opposition groups that genuinely believes in a liberal democracy is something I’m completely for. Yes to John Garang’s vision of a New Sudan!
“Remember, JEM is Islamist and its leadership consists of former students of the terrorist-loving al-Turabi.”
Good point.
I’d rather have an evil Sudanese government that shares intelligence with the US than an evil Sudanese government that wouldn’t.
However, how much influence do al-Turabi’s people have in today’s JEM? Are JEM not allied with the SLM now?
This is very complicated.
Andrew, if historic multi-faceted civil wars are to be taken into account, then the reality here is most likely “The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy… but we’ll pretend otherwise until *we* have all the guns.”
First; read Bob Marley
Ambush in the night
See them fighting for power
But they know not the hour
So they bribing with
Their guns, spare-parts and money
Trying to belittle our integrity
They say what we know
Is just what they teach us
Thru political strategy
They keep us hungry
When you gonna get some food
Your brother got to be your enemy
Ambush in the night
All guns aiming at me
Ambush in the night
They opened fire on me
Ambush in the night
Protected by His Majesty
See them fighting for power
But they know not the hour
So they bribing
With their guns, spare-parts and money
Trying to belittle our integrity
Well what we know
Is not what they tell us
We’re not ignorant, I mean it
And they just could not touch us
Thru the powers of the most high
We keep on surfacing
Thru the powers of the most high
We keep on surviving
Ambush in the night
Planned by society
Ambush in the night
They are trying to conquer me
Ambush in the night
Anything money can bring
Ambush in the night
Planned by society
Ambush in the night
second ras babi say:
this is not new…
who is responsible?
The Sudanese right wing…
I wish Andrew Heavens had explained why the most chilled out people group (sudanis), predominantly use violent means with each other…
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