SCROLL DOWN for updates.
Big news people!
Lots of serious web surfing and phone calls with people in Sudan but for now, let me quickly go through what needs to be highlighted.
WHAT? WHEN? WHO?
The Darfurian rebel group Justice and Equality Movement mounted a bold attack on Khartoum less than two days ago but was stopped at the outskirts of the city by the Sudanese Armed Forces. It was a big battle involving helicopters and significant aerial bombardment. At the moment, things like the number of casualties and amount of damage caused are still vague.
IS THIS ATTACK GOOD?
There are very mixed and heated Sudanese sentiments over this daring move with some (mainly the Southern Sudanese and some Darfurians) staunchly supporting it and others against it.
As for me, I strongly condemn the attack. The United States and the UN have condemned it too. I’m glad they’ve made it clear they won’t accept this kind of behavior. It undermines all efforts aimed at implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and finding a political solution for Darfur. It’s a reckless move that won’t do anyone any real good. If this continues, sectarian tensions in the capital (which tribally-speaking is a very mixed city) may eventually spill over the brim. Khartoum turning into another Somalia or Baghdad is the last thing anybody needs.
MILITARY DEFECTORS?
The Sudanese military is reported to be on a heightened state of alert. More importantly however…
It is widely believed that the rebels cannot beat the well-armed government forces toe-to-toe, unless the government security forces split and soldiers defect in large numbers.
Rebel leaders said Saturday that some Sudanese military commanders had done exactly that, but the government denied it, and it was unclear late Saturday night how deep the divisions were within the Sudanese military.
The army does have many soldiers and officials who are from Darfur’s targeted tribes within its ranks so I have little doubts about defections but I do strongly suspect that the number of defectors is largely exaggerated by the rebels for propaganda purposes. Also keep in mind that the Sudanese military treats its members very well, providing them with good salaries and the best possible health care for them and their families. Most simply won’t risk losing that.
CHAD’S ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT
Following the attack, Khartoum also broke off diplomatic ties with neighboring Chad for allegedly being involved. The allegation is a real possibility. It’s a known fact that Khartoum provides support for Chadian rebels while Chad backs Darfur’s. In fact, two years ago, Khartoum was accused by Chad of being involved in an attack on the Chadian capital.
On April 14, 2006, following a first rebel attack against the Chadian capital Chad had severed diplomatic relations with Sudan.
SAVE DARFUR COALITION’S REACTION
I’m still looking forward to what Save Darfur will say about this attack. Will they support it like they’ve always supported the rebels unconditionally or will they condemn it?
Taking the capital by force is utter lunacy, especially when carried out by Islamists with strong sectarian tendencies.
In case you didn’t know, the JEM’s leadership is made up of former students of Hassan al-Turabi, the man responsible for harboring Bin Laden in Sudan.
EGYPT HELPING SUDAN MILITARILY?
On a related note, it seems that the Egyptian government is backing Khartoum which wouldn’t be surprising since relations are good.
There were signs that Egypt was showing signs of support for Khartoum on Saturday. One witness said he saw three Egyptian fighter planes and one Egyptian army cargo plane landing at the airport. The witness said he could see the Egyptian flag on the side of the planes.
Looks like Sudanese government isn’t taking any chances.
A CONSPIRACY THEORY TO KEEP YOU ENTERTAINED
There is something weird going on here but before I get into that, let me quote Andrew Heavens, a freelance writer based in Khartoum.
Khartoum has always managed to stay insulated from most of the really horrific stuff going on in the country, particularly in Darfur. When we first arrived, I lost count of the number of people who assured us that is was “the safest city in Africa”. That reputation has taken a hit in recent months with the worries about an upsurge in terrorist activity. After today, that reputation is dead and buried. For the first time, Darfur has come to Khartoum.
Precisely because it is the first time in recent history something like this has happened, people in Khartoum are panicking about it and rightly so. You should be here in my house to witness the frantic phone calls and hear the worried conversations. The city’s residents are now looking towards the government - the very government they hate - for security and comfort. If anyone is the winner in this, it is the government.
It is scary how quickly this happened. Look at any map and you’ll see that the Chadian border is a long way away from Khartoum. Two days ago, the Sudanese army put out a statement saying that a body of rebels was heading towards North Kordofan – a vast open region in between Darfur and Khartoum. Most people scoffed at the announcement saying it was a clear propaganda ploy to distract attention from the recent bombing of a Darfur school. But two days later, the guns were blazing in our back yard. The Khartoum government is now saying that they had the rebels under surveillance all the time and were totally prepared. But I can’t believe anyone thought JEM would get here in the first place, never mind this fast.
Okay now pay close attention because this is where I begin proposing my conspiracy theory. 
The government knew the rebels were advancing towards the capital days before the attack and yet they did nothing much about it. Seems to me that they might have wanted it to happen because the clear winner in this episode is the government but at this point it’s all just mere speculation.
SO WHAT’S NEXT?
I’m trying to get my hands on all the news I can, but basically Umdurman is calm calmer now although there are reports of ongoing fighting. The Sudanese military is cleaning up the mess and has been ordered to spread all over the place. They are on standby mode. On top of that, they’re also searching for Darfurian fighters who have infiltrated into the capital by changing into civilian clothes when they arrived. Dinoz over at Shamarat confirms this.
so my auntie and my uncles live in a complex thats open to a big huge 7osh! and she just saw some of the army people from the west change cloths into civilian outfits change in her own 7osh!
they dont know anything they dont know wtf is going on @ all and that is pissing me off we are hearing shot guns in the backround!!
The next few days will be important to keep track of. More attacks are rumored to be expected. Also, this whole talk of divisions within the government, infiltration and possible defectors in the military should be followed but like I said, at this point the exact details are still vague. There are too many conflicting stories floating around but what I’ve published for you here is the bulk of the matter.
JEM’s assault shows that Khartoum might be becoming vulnerable. However, I don’t think JEM are so stupid to actually believe they can take over the capital. If anything, their attack might have been designed for big headlines and psychological impact but still, it was dumb because they’ve just lost themselves a lot of support and sympathy in Khartoum.
I’m going to repeat what I’ve said previously again. This whole Darfur conflict isn’t a case of Good Rebels Vs Bad Government. Oh no it isn’t. It’s a case of Bad Rebels Vs Worse Government.
WHERE ARE YOU JOHN GARANG?
Can somebody please raise Garang back from the dead and bring him again to us? Pretty please?
We need the guy and his genuine vision for a New Sudan, a just and democratic Sudan with a transparent government representative of all Sudanese more than ever today.
UPDATE: It looks like my hunch about that conspiracy I smell might be right. lo2lo2a over at Shamarat shares this:
… it was explained to me logically, and it makes sense to me. If the Sudanese Government had destroyed the rebels in Darfur, or worse, in Kordofan, it would have landed itself in deep s*** with everyone for killing Darfurians/Tchadians for no legitimate reason, validating the accusations of “genocide”. By waiting until the rebels had reached Khartoum, the government could attack them, in defence of itself and its civilians, by rightly saying that they were actually threatened by them - thus silencing any genocide accusations.
Hmmm… looks very possible and seems to make sense. Wait for them to arrive in Khartoum and use “defending the capital and its civilians” as an excuse to destroy the rebels. Or it could just be because high-ranking defectors in the military didn’t want to do anything about it. Or… whatever.
The definite answer is nobody knows for sure. At this point there are a number of stories and explanations taking shape.
Meanwhile Islamist leader Turabi has been arrested following the attack by JEM.
Also, Eric Reeves from the ‘Save Darfur’ camp has written a commendable article about the recent atrocious bombing by Khartoum in Darfur which killed kids at a school. There is one problem though. Reeves doesn’t mention a single word about JEM’s attack, choosing only to focus on Khartoum’s brutality and hence continues his unconditional support for the rebels.
DirtyMuslimBlgr
SudaneseThinker
{ 27 comments… read them below or add one }
Hey, hope your family is safe man..
Sorry to say but I support the attack. I know that there will be a lots of people who feel the same way. Among them are all the Darfurian refugees and Christian sudaneese. This is a fact. Again it is my opinion and it has nothing to do with being rational and just or that matter irrational and cruel. It is all about sujective judgment and a strong feeling for an urgent need to shake the Khartoum junta and their cronies.
I understand that it is inproper and cruel and inhuman and the whole bla bla bla, one needs to understand that SOMETHIMES one must speak the same language of the foe. Violence breeds violence. That’s all what Khartoum speaks anyway. And it needs to know that, since peace and negotiations have never been the staple of Khartoum government. or if they were they are simply a lip services and propaganda trick. The example of Sami’s release showed the deep seated deception of Khartoum play acting. How poeple can be gullible to accept this form of decption is beyond me.
The other thing that we should consider is that rebel attack did not target civilians (women and children) or use suicide bombers for that matter. Khartoun has many times used cronies targeting civilians with the cruelest devises of death and humiliation.
I hope this event would start ushering in a new way of settling the issue of Darfur once and for all.
“Sorry to say but I support the attack. I know that there will be a lots of people who feel the same way.”
I support the goals of the JEM and the SLM but I don’t see how that attack helped. I appreciate that the attack didn’t target civilians (and I wouldn’t expect Sudanese rebels to use those “strategies” anyway).
The rebels couldn’t take Khartoum and even if they could, government forces would use the opportunity to kill as many civilians as possible and you know it will be the rebels who will get the blame for that.
“I hope this event would start ushering in a new way of settling the issue of Darfur once and for all.”
Unfortunately, it might. The world pretty much ignores what Khartoum is doing in Darfur. It’s striking back that the world notices. This was a propaganda victory for Khartoum. And Khartoum might use it as an excuse to attack in Darfur (hunting down “terrorists”).
What was Khalil Ibrahim thinking? Did he believe that enough soldiers would defect so that the attack could actually be successful? Or does he have a plan and this is part of it?
I think we should look into why the US condemned the attack. I wouldn’t care about why the UN did (someone attacks an Arab dictatorship, the UN obviously condemn the attack). But the US have more complex reasons for condemning the attack. Khartoum is a secret ally of the US, of course; but the US are not just on the side of whomever is the most valuable ally (otherwise Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan would have been overrun a long time ago).
Perhaps Khalil Ibrahim is trying for American peace keeping troops for Darfur? If he can demonstrate that the conflict is violent, then perhaps the argument against American troops (they would cause violence) is weakened?
I am surprised by Egypt’s role in this. I cannot imagine that Egypt would support Khartoum without the US and Israel being largely in favour of that decision. (Egypt’s dictator relies on peace with Israel and US support.)
And perhaps the US condemned the attack because of Chadian support for it? Maybe the US don’t want Chad involved?
But then I largely agree with Jallal. What CAN the rebels do?
(And note I say “rebels”, not “resistance”. As Jallal said, they are not attacking civilians and they were not attacking first.)
Mustapha, family is safe so far. Thanks for asking.
Jallal, in terms of demonstrating to Khartoum their boldness, the rebels have certainly succeeded and unfortunately like you said it is only violence - the language of Khartoum - that this government understands so if any good *might* come out of the attack for the Sudanese people then it’s that it may force the regime to sit down for serious negotiations.
Still though, so the rebels attack and then what? Then WHAT?
Let’s get real, this can easily backfire and Khartoum will have the justification it needs to go on a free bombing spree in Darfur. Moreover many Khartoumers afraid of potential violence will support it.
The suffering people of Darfur will pay the price I’m afraid and this is what pisses me off. The rebels have shown that they’re not smart strategists but reckless.
Also just for the record, I support the general *stated* goals of the rebels, I emphasize the word *stated* because frankly I’m becoming increasingly distrustful of the JEM thanks to their inherent Islamist ideology. At least the SLM is secular.
If the rebels wanna play smart, they should all unite - SPLM, the Kush Liberation Front, Eastern Front and ALL Darfurian rebels - create a coalition, come up with a democratic platform like John Garang’s and then stand up to the government. THAT will be something strategic and a goal I can embrace. The regime in Khartoum will have to sit down and negotiate a fair deal with the rebels just like they were forced to sit down with the SPLM. They won’t have a choice.
On a related note, it’s funny how silent the SPLM has been about this!
Defeating this regime and replacing it with another oppresive one consisting of rebels who may shove Islamism or secular fascism down our throats is something we must be very careful to avoid and foresee as a possibility.
That’s what sucks about all of this.
Yes to a broad democratic coalition representing all Sudanese. Yes to the hero John Garang’s vision for a New Sudan, but hell no to rebels who might end up being just as bad as this government, if not even worse.
JEM’s attack is reckless and might very possibly backfire. I only wish they had the brains to strategize better than this.
Andrew, like you and Jallal, I understand what you mean when you imply and ask “What CAN the rebels do?”
Like I said, what they can and SHOULD do is strategize better like I’ve explained above.
The attack is largely symbolic. I don’t think JEM is capable of taking Khartoum and changing the government. However, it really sends a very strong signal: JEM is capable of using the same language that Khartoum uses. I will compare this attack to the SPLA attack on Juba in 1992. Unlike JEM though, they had an exit strategy and actually occuppied the town for three days.
But like the Juba attack, the repercussions are going to be serious. Lots of Darfuris within the Sudanese army will be subjected to a pogrom. (The Sudanese government killed lots of the middle class in Juba then…the goon who commanded all this was General El Fatih Erwah. I am waiting for the day he will be tried for crimes against humanity) So will prominent Darfuri citizens in the capital.
The other dimension of the Khartoum attack is the increasing regionalization of the Darfur conflict. It is likely that Chad played a big role in this attack. Remember how Khartoum allegedly suponsered a similar attack on the Idriss Deby government in February? This is a tit-for-tat issue. But the message is clear: Chad is no longer the little brother that Khartoum can play around with. Note that this poor country has been within the clutches of Khartoum’s sphere of influence since the early ’90s.
The other thing you might want to add to your conspiracy theory is France’s role in this attack. Well, remember when Deby was being routed in February? The tide only changed in his favour when French planes bombed the rebel columns, forcing them to retreat east to Sudan.(JEM leaders have been offered sanctuary in France)
Me thinks,France, wary of its dwindling influence in Africa, will do anything to shore up regimes that it sees are friendly to its interests. As long as Khartoum remains hostile to Deby, it will sit within France’s cross-hairs. Sudan’s security chief Salah Gosh, the alleged master-mind of the attack on Deby’s government, is certainly shaking in his boots now. I wonder how he feels, tasting a dose of his own poison.
This is certainly a very interesting development and I certainly will be watching out for more because this is not the end of the story.
End of the story it isn’t. The “movie” has just started Asma Ana!
Btw, I just got more unconfirmed stories through a phone call.
Apparently Ibrahim Khalil, the leader himself was with the rebels and is now rumored to be hiding somewhere in Khartoum. Also, most involved in the attack are teenage youngsters. Lots of blood and corpses. Umdurman is a mess.
I think you are taking it too hard. Gun battles on the streets of capital cities are very in these days in our region. I was actually thinking about starting some mess in Tel Aviv. I even went to Jaffo to check if the Arabs there may be interested but they were too busy selling their shwarmas.
Yesterday I watched Al Jazera’s Arabic broadcast on the situation in Khartoum. The network showed pictures of jubilant Sudanese military personnel driving captured Toyota Landcruisers. News reports indicate that JEM attacked Wad Sayedna, which is the place where Sudan keeps its airforce.
On the same newscast, a London-based JEM spokesman said the rebels destroyed Wad Sayedna, ostensibly to disable the fighting capacity of the planes used to “bomb our people.”
The Khartoum government did not allow reporters to photograph Wad Sayedna after the attack, despite its claim that the rebels were repulsed. This baffles me.
I want to posit the argument that the government is not letting the Sudanese people and the world know the full extent of what transpired at Wad Sayedna. Me thinks the rebels caused extensive damage to the airforce base and the Sudanese government is too embarassed to allow cameras in there.
On another note, if indeed Khalil Ibrahim was in the attack, and if he is captured alive, we will have another Daud Bolad situation. Bolad if anyone recalls, was the Fur leader who the SPLA tried to use to establish a foothold in Darfur in the early ’90s. His force, coming over from the South, was composed of mostly southerners and it had no support on the ground. It was ultimately batrayed and Bolad was captured, transported to Khartoum, and tortured to death.
This is not the first time that rebels have launched such daring attacks on the Omar El Beshir government. In the early ’90s there was a similar attack on Juba. In 1999, or 2000 (I am not completely sure), the SPLA, with its compatriots in the NDA, launched a daring commando raid on Kassala, destroying several aircraft on the tarmac. In a meeting with youth in Nairobi in early 2001, John Garang said only one life was lost among the rebels. “Wa kaman de kulu min ehimal,” Garang said. (That was all from negligence).
Apparently, after a successful carrying out of the objectives, the lone soldier slipped away from his platoon and went back to retrive something he had forgetten. (That’s what he told a fellow soldier).
But just as in Juba, the Sudanese army went on a killing spree of southern Sudanese in Kassala. A purge and a witch hunt of southern Sudanese in the army stationed in Kassala was also carried out. Many innocent lives were lost, as being southern Sudanese became synonymous with being SPLA.
I weep for the innocent Darfuris: the Zaghawa, Masalit and the Fur in Khartoum. Salah Gosh’s goons will be at their dirty work once again.
this is not new
we have lived same story before
soldiers kill soldiers
and the security kills
who they want to kill
where is al-Numeri?
where is al-Turabi?
where are the Sudanese?
we can not defeat the beast without the people
opposition
you have got it wrong
again and again
you are just bringing
to our drama
more pain
count on the people
the victory in their hands
we will do it with them
al-Bashir
you are going to see
the people marching to your palace
tomorrow will come
Mr….
BREAKING:
Hassan al-Turabi the Islamist leader and former good friend of Bin Laden arrested following the attack by JEM!
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article27101
The plot thickens!
So now we know how the Save Darfur lot reacted, see Eric Reeves…
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0512/p09s02-coop.html
Any ideas on how an Antonov hovers?
Aha! Good stuff but as expected Reeves won’t mention a single word about the rebels.
The unconditional support continues!
There’s one thing that I must elucidate to anyone that thinks of himself as a THINKER: the current goverment of the sudan “Government of National Unity” doesn’t only represent the National Congress Party. There’re more than 10 parties inclusive of Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) which was lead by JOHN GARANG!!!
The JEM and all the bullshit is over…………
You keep talking and they keep walking
Last time I checked the comments section, Ponder was still talking too.
Hey Drima,
I dont think anyone should celebrate the attack, the JEM are led by a person who used to be part of the current government and who used to have huge control over all the atrocities that went down in Sudan (changing the nature of the attack on the South to Jihad ) .
His a close ally to Al-turaby, who introduced Sharia law to Sudan, invited Bin Laden to the country and trained many terrorist cells.
The aim of the JEM is not to liberate the Sudanese people but to get revenge for the fact that they are no longer in power. How can such exteremist claim to be secular and make such a u-turn. I dont believe that crap for one minute, all they want to do is come back to power and control the country. What is going on is just a power struggle between extremist. It has nothing to do with the wider Sudanese society, if they took over power, they will not change anything in the country.
I dont believe the SPLM is supporting the JEM, if it wasnt for the fact that these people were not outsted from power, the peace deal between the North and the South would not have been posssible.
I dont mind the current government leaving but not to be replaced by the same regime under a different name.
Hamdullilah,
Our army managed to kill these drugs soldiers.
They are animals, they destroyed a bus full of people.
I don’t understand how these savages reached Khartoum, 2 days ago we heard about infiltration.
Anyone responsible for helping them should be brought to justice.
Khartoum must be cleaned of them.
Amal, the relationship between JEM and the lovely al-Turabi is a fact but its depth is something that remains vague.
Ahmad, forgive me if I’m wrong but I smell a very racist undertone coming along with words and phrases such as ‘animals’, ’savages’ and ‘cleaned of them’.
I hope I am wrong.
[quote]
I hope I am wrong.
[/quote]
Aren’t these the typical terms used to refer to those who oppose Arab regimes?
Incidentally, are those not the terms supporters of Arab regimes claim Zionists use to describe Arabs?
And, incidentally, this “destroying a bus full of people” episode, is that not a typical Arab strategy against Jews? Are those who PLAN and PERPETRATE that kind of attacks against Jews also “animals”?
Perhaps Ahmad now understand, for example, what Israelis go through. Even though Khartoum had the luxury of being attacked by a group who at least didn’t specifically PLAN to attack civilians (and buses)…
We are getting there.
Turabi indicted? Is that a surprise to you? He’s a pain in the arse of the current regime now he “moderated” himself after having his butt kicked.
Ahmad,
“They are animals, they destroyed a bus full of people.”
Ya waled al hankush, ya wad boscuit!
You probably lived all your life in comfort, with easy access to refrigerated water. Loss of life, whether in Khartoum or elsewhere in Sudan, is regretable and should not be condoned.
But the “animal behaviour” you are talking of, is a daily event for some people, who for decades have suffered the brunt of the atrocities of the Khartoum regime. Certainly, a bus load of people is nothing compared to the daily horror the people of Darfur are encountering.
In short I am saying, the JEM rebels gave you all “hanakish” of Khartoum (assuming you are a Khartoumer)a taste of what is happening in Darfur. It is bitter and ugly, isn’t it?
All the more reason we should all work hard to eliminate injustice, racial descrimination and the so called “awlad al beled” mentality. Only then will we have peace in the whole of Sudan.
We are praying for you, and Sudan. A good friend of my husband’s wife was stuck in Omdurman, we hope she can return to her family soon.
hope your family are safe and this doesn’t escalate.
So Turabi released, suggesting he was picked up as part of a general trawl to make it look as if Khartoum knew what was going on.
I don’t buy the conspiracy theories. My take is that this was a pretty small Jem force that may or may not have been picked up by security forces at one stage, but they then lost them. Jem collected more fighters along the way and had support inside Omdurman.
They succeeded in their primary objective of taking the war to Khartoum. There will be plenty of government officials not sleeping soundly tonight and Darfuri army officers wondering which side they should be on.
We know that JEM is not a purely Islamic movement as the SLA is not purely an ethnic movement. Lets be fair in our analysis.
This attack by JEM is to raise its credentials against the SLA to draw more Darfurians to its ranks.
Salaam
Drima :
“Last time I checked the comments section, Ponder was still talking too.
”
Ponder
As expected, mass arrests of Darfuris is going on in Khartoum right now.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article27121
The Save Darfur Coalition’s response is available at:
http://www.savedarfur.org/newsroom/releases/rebel_attacks_raise_specter_of_atrocities_beyond_darfurs_borders/
Leave a Comment