I’ve been following the ongoing negotiations between Khartoum and the US envoy to Sudan closely. Can you blame me? Normalizing ties would be a huge positive and mutually-beneficial step.
I’m glad America has the right conditions in place.
April 14, 2008 (KHARTOUM) — The US special envoy for Sudan is expected to hold a meeting with a Sudanese delegation in Roma Italy on Wednesday to discuss the deployment of Darfur peacekeeping force and the bilateral relations.
… The US Administration wants Sudan to remove obstacles to the deployment of a U.N.-led peacekeeping force, stop violence against civilians in Darfur, and carry out the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between north and south Sudan, including elections in 2009, The Los Angels Times reported last month.
The U.S. offered to restore full diplomatic ties, lift sanctions and remove Khartoum from Washington’s list of state sponsors of terrorism, Williamson said.
What we’re seeing here is a typical “carrots and sticks” approach which rests the decision upon Khartoum’s shoulders. I doubt that’s enough to move the Sudanese regime although with the approaching possible election of a Donkey president, they know they need to fix things fast. Like I said:
… given that it’s the Democrats who’ve been calling for a withdrawal from Iraq and a forced military intervention in Darfur, I’m not exactly ready to comfortably embrace Obama just yet. Darfur needs a political solution. Going back to Clinton’s approach is the last thing Sudan needs. Bush’s is better although it lacks sufficient pressure now because al-Bashir’s regime is heavily cooperating with the CIA again in sharing highly valuable terrorism-related intelligence. Moreover, last year the CIA convened in Khartoum at a conference attended by more than 50 African intelligence agencies.
Carrots and sticks isn’t pressure. It’s a form of seduction. I think that’s the most the Bush administration will do since it would like the valuable intelligence on terrorism to continue flowing in from Khartoum.
I hope Khartoum finds what’s on the table seducing enough.
Meanwhile, I continue to keep track of the developments involving current efforts directed at Sudan by the US administration and the US presidential race.
DirtyMuslimBlgr
SudaneseThinker
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
I really hope that the government in Khartoum will come around and accept the terms that the U.S. gives them because it really does benefit everyone. Sadly, though, they might just keep operating at the level that they do– sharing intelligence and such in the war on “terror.” I doubt that the U.S. will ever give up that relationship and will do what it takes– sadly, even looking the other way when it comes to Darfur and the CPA– to make sure the information keeps flowing.
Same here Mathew. Same here.
I think the information that Khartoum can provide now is rather exhausted and would be stale anyway. The US really gets nothing on an intelligence level from the Sudanese at this point. The U.S. approach will be to formalize and strengthen ties with South and West Sudan and strangle Khartoum. Eventually, the North and East will follow leaving Khartoum to rely even more heavily on China, India, Iran and the Arab world.
Salaam
Ron, you underestimate the value of Sudanese cooperation in the war on terror. Khartoum has spies in Iraq, Somalia and throughout east Africa. Also keep in mind that we’re a country sharing borders with another 9. Sudanese instability means potential instability in 9 other countries. America can’t afford that especially with all the stuff going on in Somalia and America will do its best to maintain the current mutually beneficial intelligence cooperation.
I may be wrong on this but I think Sudanese cooperation is not as helpful as when Bin Laden still had a strong presence in the country.
Somalia is not that important as far as the Islamic threat there. The Egyptians, Kenyans, Djboutis,Somaliland, Punt, Ethiopians and Saudis can provide valuable intel as to what is going on in Mogadisu.
The spies Sudan has in Iraq cannot provide better information than the Kurds, Assyrians, Sunnis, Saudis, Turks, and Kuwaitis that the our intelligence agencies have on our payroll.
The Bush administration is trying to get a victory for McCain in Darfur. However, the Democrats are still embarassed by Clinton’s bumbling of Sudan so expect for Barack or Hillary to fund Bashir’s enemies to bring him to his knees.
The US cannot afford to allow South Sudan to fall into the hands of the Chinese or Indians so expect massive support and propping up in the future through Kenya and Uganda.
I may be wrong but this is my gut feelings.
Salaam
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