Updates On North-South Sudan Crisis

Posted on November 22, 2007
Filed Under Sudan, Darfur, Bashir, Sudanese |

Yeah, that crisis. Silva Kiir, the SPLM’s boss went to the United States and met President Bush. The visit apparently wasn’t coordinated with other partners in the “unity” government aka al-Bashir’s NCP which got the NCP rather pissed off. Following that, Omar al-Bashir engaged in very inflammatory rhetoric to score some political points.

(JPEG)

Addressing a mass rally this morning at the Wad-Medani Stadium (capital of Al-Jazeera State), some 200 miles south of Khartoum, celebrating the 18th anniversary of the Popular Defence Forces (PDF), President al-Bashir ordered to the PDF to open its camps and mobilize troops and get prepared for any eventuality.

“Now we order the PDF, the legitimate son of the people, to open their camps and gather the Mujahideen [Holy warriors] not to wage war but it is obvious that we should be ready.”

Southerners are angry and the temprature is high. Meanwhile it doesn’t look like we’ll have productive Darfur peace talks soon. There’s some ongoing string pulling by the SPLM occuring behind the scenes as this article indicates:

A war could also disrupt the oil supplies on which Khartoum relies to fight on its other war fronts.

It’s not lost on Southerners that Khartoum can’t go the war road. Nor is it lost on them that the Arabs are stalling over the peace agreement. The Arabs, the Southerners say, want to resolve the Darfur war quickly, which would free them to fight another war with the South, rather than implement the peace agreement.

As I’ve mentioned previously, the SPLM and Darfurian rebels are strategizing together. Keeping the NCP pressured by Darfur’s chaos is good for the SPLM.

… And with the oil supplies possibly disrupted in the south, the NCP regime would not have the resources to buy political loyalty and fend off the Islamists in Khartoum, who are possibly baying for President al Bashir’s blood, annoyed that he has sold out to the US.

And that my dear friends and readers is the situation at the moment. Meanwhile, al-Bashir is promising the world that there will be no return to war. Seriously, if the UN airdrops hundreds of thousands of Xanax and Prozac pills on Sudan, our problems might actually get settled. As for those Islamists and their best friend Dr. Hassan al-Turabi, I’d pick Omar al-Bashir over them on any given day.

Comments

9 Responses to “Updates On North-South Sudan Crisis”

  1. Dalu on November 22nd, 2007 9:44 pm

    It just occurred to me that I have no clue what Bashir looks like. :|

    I try really hard to provide constructive commentary, but you know somewhere between my brain and my mouth (or rather fingers), shit happens. ;)

    I hope no other war takes place.

  2. chiba on November 22nd, 2007 10:30 pm

    Hello drima,
    I read your analysis in pajamasmedia,i agree with some part and disagree with others.
    You said:
    “The root problems are essentially the same in all cases – lack of wealth and power sharing.”

    This is not really true…the problem is not like what’s generally said that:
    North concentrate all power and wealth,
    because if you take a trip to Northern cities,you will found that the North is too marginalized…

    Some people would imagine that Atbara,Port Sudan,Wad madani are swiss like cities…

  3. chiba on November 22nd, 2007 10:44 pm

    And Drima,
    You spoke like the far North is sitting on a gun powder…
    This is not the case, the North is calm and secure.
    You spoke about some grievances Nuba have, and you spoke about the “Kush liberation front” like it was real on ground…
    If every tribe took arms because there is construction in their land,then why not have a state for every tribe and family like its the case in somalia?
    Would the people be happy if tribes militia patrols the street with roadblock everywhere like in somalia?

  4. chiba on November 22nd, 2007 10:59 pm

    Manasir people who will be hurt by the construction of the dam have been offered compensation,with new house,agricultural projects,mosque…
    If it was in Uganda,or COngo,they would have been expelled without one cent of compensation…
    A reasonnable man will say ‘lets built a dam who will bring prosperity to the country,and yes people will be hurt,but we will try to compensate them’

  5. Drima on November 23rd, 2007 12:10 am

    Chiba,

    1- You misunderstand, I never said the North is not marginalized. Nubia is in the North and it’s clearly marginalized. As far as I’m concerned the only cities that are okay are Khartoum and Port Sudan.

    2- You’re right Nubia is not chaotic and things are relatively quite calm compared to Darfur of course. Still, the Kush Liberation Front is pissed off and serious. Don’t underestimate the potential violence that can errupt.

    3- “people who will be hurt by the construction of the dam have been offered compensation,with new house,agricultural projects,mosque…” — if that’s true then it’s good news but I doubt it. Do you have links? Even if they were offered compensation, it doesn’t mean they’ll get it. People before them have been offered too and had the promises broken. Plus, it’s not just about compensation, it’s also about Nubian civilization artifacts and priceless history that will be drowned.

    :)

  6. chiba on November 23rd, 2007 12:28 am

    Hi,
    Here all you want about compensation…
    http://www.merowedam.gov.sd/en/payments.html

    And this have been discused in sudaniese newspapers…coz some refused or accepted…

  7. Drima on November 23rd, 2007 4:07 am

    Thanks for the link Chiba. I’ll have a look at it. And man, are you Sudanese? You sure do pull out some interesting links. ;)

  8. Asma Ana on November 24th, 2007 3:44 am

    Drima, the king of conspiracy theories! Ain’t no strategizing between the SPLM and the Darfur rebels now. Anything you hear to that effect is just mere speculation. But historically, the SPLM tried to get into Darfur in the early ’90s. Remember Daud Bolad, the martyr, the hero, who was tortured to death in Khartoum in the early ’90s? He was trained by the SPLA. Unfortunately, the force he went with to Darfur was mostly Southern Sudanese, who were alien to the region. Subsequently, they were betrayed and Daud was captured by Janjaweed horsemen, or the so called Arab tribesmen.
    Now if anything though, there is a feeling in other marginalised areas of the Sudan, (eg South Sudan) that compatriots in Darfur should have risen up in arms a long time ago. But better late than never. Unfortunately, they (the rebels of Darfur) can’t seem to learn from the mistakes committed by the numerous “liberation” movements that have cropped up in the South since 1956.

  9. Drima on November 26th, 2007 2:47 am

    “Drima, the king of conspiracy theories! Ain’t no strategizing between the SPLM and the Darfur rebels now. Anything you hear to that effect is just mere speculation.”

    Military strategizing? Yes, pure speculation. Political strategizing? No, it isn’t speculation.

    Together with a bunch of others I follow closely, Alex De Waal was an insider and still is but to a lesser degree now. He was present in Abuja during the negotiations. Plus, as far as I’m concerned he’s got the most accurate narrative on Darfur out of all the mainstream big dudes writing about the conflict. He knows what’s happening and I largely trust his opinions. Hell, his doctoral thesis is on Darfur itself (which is why his perspectives stick to facts and aren’t politicized like most of the others). Did I mention he’s an insider?

    Also if you do analyze the situation, it indicates that there is indeed strategizing happening behind the scenes.

    You can follow Alex De Waal’s valuable writing here:

    http://www.ssrc.org/blog/author/dewaala/

Leave a Reply