Iran Wants to Fill Possible Power Vaccum in Iraq

by Drima on August 29, 2007

The great and beloved Ahmadinejad has made the intention clear:

…President Ahmadinejad of Iran said that a power vacuum was imminent in Iraq and that Tehran was ready to fill it.

… “The political power of the occupiers is collapsing rapidly,” Mr Ahmadinejad said. “Soon, we will see a huge power vacuum in the region. Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap.”

I hope no such vacuum becomes imminent. An Iranian-dominated Iraq will be very, very bad.

{ 27 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Roman Kalik 08.29.07 at 12:35 pm

How nice of them. Will Sadr be the local vassal-thug?

2 Aaron 08.29.07 at 3:42 pm

For some odd reason I don’t really see this happening. ;)

3 Lynn 08.30.07 at 1:00 pm

Thank God we can count on Iran so we can get out. They are so much more thoughtful than I ever thought.

4 Ahmad al-Safawi 08.30.07 at 2:02 pm

Whether Israel has expansion plans or not, Iran clearly has. If we muslims condemn Israel’s alleged wish for expansion, why not condemn Irans expansion plans who CLEARLY exist!?

5 Roman Kalik 08.30.07 at 2:10 pm

Ahmad, to expand on that, a state-run newspaper (fairly big one) in Iran published an article recently about how Bahrain is a lost province of Iran, how the people there want to return to the Great Homeland… I read that on Kamangir’s blog (kamangir.net) and I was thinking “Wha’?”

6 Ahmad al-Safawi 08.30.07 at 2:13 pm

Yep, Kalik, i’ve heard it. The same is true for Azerbaijan.

7 Drima 08.30.07 at 2:16 pm

I’m telling you Ahmad, I’ve got a lot of respect and admiration for Iranians as a people in general and as a nation with a rich culture and a truly magnificent heritage, but the ruling regime… oh that malicious cancer… don’t even get me started about it. Or even that loony Ahmadinejad.

What’s so funny about many of us Northern Sudanese when it comes to Iran is that we will praise it for standing up to Israel but we’ll totally condemn our notorious secret intelligence services whom ironically were also trained by the Iranian regime.

8 Drima 08.30.07 at 2:18 pm

I’ve heard about that too Roman. Bahraini blogger Mahmood (mahmood.tv) wasn’t happy about it at all.

9 Roman Kalik 08.30.07 at 3:37 pm

I share your sentiments about Iran, Drima, and as a Jew I have a very important part of my history that is connected to the Persian Empire. Today, the country is a mere dark shadow of its past.

10 Roman Kalik 08.30.07 at 5:00 pm

Speaking of plans for territorial expansion, how’s the border between Syria and Lebanon doing? Still officially non-existent because the former treats the latter as an errant extorted shop-owner?

11 Ahmad al-Safawi 08.30.07 at 6:33 pm

To be honest with you, Drima, i do not share your respect. Iranians as people does not earn my respect more than anybody else. Their past? Yes, but you will find that many peoples past is actually their weakness. Look at us Egyptians - yes, we had a magnificent civilization once, yes, we’d build the pyramids - and after that, we have’nt performed a thing in the last 2 millenia, lol :D No, i mean - get on with your life. The current situation of Egypt and Iran is nothing to be proud of. I find that both iranians and egyptians are too busy to talk about the pride of their past.

By the way - it might be that Iran stands up against Israel, but it doesnt stand up FOR Palestine. I am for the creation of Palestine, but what about fixing our own problems before fighting everybody else… Right now, Palestine is NOT in a state where it can handle the responsibilities of an independent state. Not that i am for Israeli occupication of the Gaza and the West Bank, but we have some problems to resolve before we complain. Where is Iran’s heroic support to stabilize Palestine? They stand against Israel, but not for Palestine!

12 Roman Kalik 08.30.07 at 7:22 pm

Ahmad, in the short history of the Palestinians as a national group (existence as a cultural and linguistic group was longer, but that’s not the time period we speak of here), not a single state in this region defined itself as being *for* the Palestinians, but rather *against* Israel. The farthest the support went was to armed groups that were against Israel (which often backfired violently, but I digress again), not for actual support to displaced populace or stabilizing actions for nation-building.

In fact, ironically enough, Israel did more for the Palestinians (even with what it may or may not do *to* them at times) as a state, with the (ignored) offer after the Six Day War, and much later in the 90s, than any other country in the Middle-East ever did.

It was always about Israel, never about the Palestinians. Just a mirage, to confuse and divert and prevent any notion of dialogue.

13 Roman Kalik 08.30.07 at 7:28 pm

Incidentally, it’s not the heritage and ancient culture that the current Iranian regime seems to be interested in. In fact, the impression I get is that that is being actively erased, with the focus being purely on an Islamist identity and naught else. Iran exists temporarily until the Mahdi returns, much like the Muslim Brotherhood seems to accept temporary, pre-Great-Caliphate Islamist states.

14 Ahmad al-Safawi 08.30.07 at 7:42 pm

I disagree that Israel did more for the Palestinians, because we have way different views of Barak’s offer and the sixdaywar, but i am happy to see somebody sharing my view that Iran (and others) recieve a lot of credit for being against Israel instead of being FOR the palestinians.

Regarding Iran;
Really? I view it otherwise. You will often hear Iran (and shiites in general) speaking about their concept of the Mahdi (with is not identical to ours), and that they will be oppressed until his arrival. But does that mentality fit with Iran’s expansion-dreams? I mean, currently, i am aware of 3 countries which Iran openly tries to control. Is’nt this the job of the Mahdi!?

To me, it is naught but hypocrisy.

15 Drima 08.30.07 at 7:43 pm

Ahmad, no whole people are perfect, not even Iranians. However there are some certain qualities about them which I find admirable. One, they’re very proud of their identity and culture. Two, they’re generally self-sufficient.

“It was always about Israel, never about the Palestinians. Just a mirage, to confuse and divert and prevent any notion of dialogue.”

Roman, it still is but I think Iran’s rise is slowly changing that.

16 howie 08.30.07 at 11:02 pm

Ahmad-

You make some great points…There are issues that really bug me though…not related really to your points.

1. Iran standing up to Israel…yes and threats and all that. What did Israel ever do to Iran? A whole lot more Iranians have been killed by Arabs than by Jews…like maybe about 1/2 million to 0??? And that is just RECENT history.

2. Does anybody besides me seeing Egypt being just on the brink of becoming the next Iran? Man can I see that happening…

3. The Muslim world in general has some kind of obsession with the Palestinians. But they were not obsessed with them for the 400 years the Turks were shitting on them…I never quite understood that?? But I guess that is a whole other story.

4. I like your point about many Muslim countries focusing on their own act before they get all fired up about the Palestinians…I mean…really, does the average say…Iraqi go to bed at night crying for Palestinians…I don’t think many Lebanese do.

17 Roman Kalik 08.31.07 at 3:14 am

Ahmad, I’m not going all the way to Barak, just to Rabin for the moment. Semi-autonomy is better than no autonomy (under Egypt and Jordan, for example), and the potential for full autonomy never even existed when matters were in the hands of the Arab League members.

Barak’s offer, from the Israeli point of view, went as far as it would ever go (and most likely it will never return in that total format). I think Barak knew that Arafat would never accept, though. We made a mistake empowering that man, and treating him and the PLO as the representatives of the Palestinians. But, to be fair, who else was there? Hamas, the “religious charity group” that turned out to be hoarding guns?

18 Roman Kalik 08.31.07 at 3:31 am

Regarding Iran again, the best parallel I can think of is the Soviet Union, which expanded under the Communist revolutionary ethos. Iran is very similar, expanding under the Islamist revolutionary ethos. Iranian nationalism exists, and it is a driving force, but is a secondary one.

The parallels do not end there, by the way, and it’s no coincidence that Iran finds itself on friendly terms with Communist and neo-Communist states, regardless of their non-Muslim, anti-religion aspect. It’s not just a matter of shared enemies, but rather a deeper tie of world perception and ideals.

19 Ahmad al-Safawi 08.31.07 at 5:18 pm

Howie, if we look at things the way you do, the case would be the same for us arabs. Any person who have actually been to Iran knows that arabs in Israel is treated better than arabs in Iran. Should we arabs fight Iran then??

2. No, i do not view it that way. What happended in Iran will never happen i Egypt. Now, keep in mind that the Muslim Brotherhood who is the strongest islamist party in Egypt, is far away from Khomeini and his Wilayat al-Faqih. So even if an islamic revolution occurs, the case will be different. The Iranian system is NOT the only way to run an Islamic government. I am egyptian myself.

I will write more later.

20 Drima 08.31.07 at 5:42 pm

Ahmad, why don’t you just start your own blog man?

Try it here wordpress.com :)

21 howie 09.01.07 at 2:53 am

Ahmad-

I realize you are Egyptian which is why I posed the questions to you…You also don’t think inside the typical box.

“I will write more later.”

I sure hope so.

22 Ahmad al-Safawi 09.01.07 at 1:49 pm

Drima, thank for the advice hehe… But i like your blog :D

Howie, i will respond now.
3. In the eyes of many muslims, the opression by the Ottoman Empire was not similiar to that of the Israelis. If you read in muslim circles, you will find a lot of propaganda by the Khilafah-fanatics, who is being lead by the Hizb-ut-Tahreer movement. If you read this, and you believe in it, no doubt you deem the Ottoman rule as legitimate. If you want, i can link you to some of these fairytales.

That be said, you should’nt compare the 1800-century with the case after 1948. In recent times, people has became more politically active, and mass-media tramsmit everything to the people - all they have to do is turn on their TV. Quite another case in the Ottoman time. To compare it, i do not think that Moroccan jews in the 1800-century were sleepless because of the Russian progroms - not because they did not care about their brethen, but mostly becuase the lay-person did’nt know.

Last but not least, many muslim areas were actually under Ottoman rule at the same time as Palestine was…

4. In generel, there is a lot of just sympathy with the palestinian case all over the arab would among the average arab. No one can deny that. But honestly, the way fx. Iran handles their minorities, they are not in the state where they can complain about Israel. That be said, i view it as a pious act to support the opressed, but in the case of Iran (and many other muslim governments), it is merely a propaganda stunt. I mean - if they really wanted the palestinians to get the rid of the israeli soldiers, the FIRST thing to do would be to ensure a stabile, central government in Palestine. Cuz the way things looks now, Palestine is not in a state where it could handle all its responsibilities as a fully-independent state…

A famous nordic expression:
“Do not throw stones if you live in a house made of glass”

23 Ahmad al-Safawi 09.01.07 at 4:58 pm

All over the arab world, i meant.

24 Roman Kalik 09.01.07 at 7:15 pm

Ahmad, would looking at what Hamas is doing as a government (minus the endless clashes with the armed gangs, maybe) be a good indication of what the Muslim Brotherhood will be should they gain power? Hamas is pretty much an extension of the MB, after all.

25 Ahmad al-Safawi 09.01.07 at 7:48 pm

Perhaps, Roman. One would assume that Muslim Brotherhood, being the mother-party of Hamas, would stand really close to the way Hamas runs their government. In terms of official politics, i would say yes. The official politics of Khalid Mishaal and Ismail Haniyeh would be very close to what politics the Muslim Brotherhood might run as a government party. The same probably true for foreign politics. However, there might be a difference, considering following facts:

1. As you mentioned, Hamas is constantly facing threats from various armed gangs and militias, not to ignore the threat from the Fatah. Besides, Hamas is facing a more or less constant confrontation with Israel, which in my view, is actually what keeps Hamas alive - in many circles, fighting Israel is enough for their support, and as Hamas is more active in their struggle, they are more likely to recieve support on this background. Taking this in mind, Hamas still lacks actual political achievements, so maybe it’s too early to say what Hamas government really is like. Only thing that Hamas has _ACTUALLY_ proven yet in their willingness to fight (not only Israel!), their charity and insisting on not recognizing Israel. Not notable political achievements, if you ask me…

2. On the other hand, Egypt has a long secular tradition and more notable political engagement from the average egyptian. As i see it, the secular spirit who culminated under the rule of Nasser, is still alive inside us, despite the rise of islamism and religious neo-conservatism. As a government party (at least in the first 10 years), this will force MB to moderate their politics. Not only that, but Egypt (unless Palestine) has a sizeable christian minority inside, that even under Hosny Mubarak has begun to demand more of their rights from the state. This is under Hosny Mubarak, imagine their case under the MB…

Perhaps its still too early to compare, as Hamas still lacks regular political achievements.

Wow… this was long…

26 Ahmad al-Safawi 09.01.07 at 7:52 pm

Sorry, i forgot:

The above been stated, i still think that Hamas is the best comparison to what might be a future MB dominated government.

27 Roman Kalik 09.01.07 at 8:19 pm

Heh, yeah, Hamas’ only political achievement is being hardheaded to an extreme, but then again their central ideology demands that. The only other thing is the charity, which is NOT building real state infrastructure, rather investing in temporary, party-based works instead.

I suspect that the MB is built along the same lines, I.E building the party rather than the state and being a political rock, thus being in constant conflict with anyone who doesn’t fit their ideology. Flexibility really doesn’t seem to be their forte.

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