January 2007

It’s not easy writing this post. It’s not easy because it’s already hard enough imagining Sudan in a worse state than it already is in. Leave alone writing about it. A really big part of me hates to accept the idea that things could get much worse if Southern Sudanese vote for seperation. I really doubt the NCP will allow seperation to happen. Jan Pronk also blogged a revealing but worrying entry recently (hat tip: Sudan Watch)

…A resumption of the war would not only be a tragedy for Sudan itself, but also for the region. In the present circumstances it would also affect the neighbour countries Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Congo. If linked with a continuation of the civil war in Darfur, also Chad, the Central African Republic and perhaps Egypt and Libya might become involved. To a certain extent some of these countries are already involved, but rather indirectly, and predominantly in political and economic terms. However, an outright civil war between North and South Sudan might put the region in flames, in particular if linked with the eternal conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and with the war between Ethiopia and Somalia, which recently broke out. This region may very well become a theatre also for Islamic fundamentalists, either from within or from the Middle East.

…The CPA is quite a robust agreement, but the root causes of the conflict between the North and the South still exist. Moreover, there are forces in Sudan that have something else in mind than peace.

Grrrr… who the hell are those “forces”? Ehm ehm… Turabi and friends anyone?

I am convinced that President Bashir is sincerely aiming to honour the Comprehensive Peace Agreement with the South. So does Vice-President Taha, who, together with John Garang, has been the architect of this agreement. But there are still forces in Khartoum that disagree and seek to return to the situation before peace: one Sudan, one system, ruled by Khartoum: one country solely based on Northern values. These are the same forces that continue to seek a military victory in Darfur, despite having signed a peace agreement. These are the same forces that obstruct the work of the United Nations mission in Sudan, despite the fact that this mission is present in Sudan upon the invitation of the Governments in Juba and Khartoum.

Sudan is no democracy. It is not a dictatorship either. A conglomerate of power groups is ruling Sudan. This conglomerate is not transparent and in a delicate balance. It is a combination of military, business, national security and ideological groups. Some of these groups are more enlightened than others, keen to open up the Sudanese society, not only for foreign capital, but also for liberal ideas concerning democracy and human rights. Sudan can gradually become a democracy, with the help of the CPA, if fully implemented. Its democracy can find a base in the new Constitution, provided that National Security Law will not set this Constitution aside. Presently that seems to be the case. Sudan has become a National Security State. During 2006 other groups, mainly interested in maintaining power and strongly focussed on the economic interests of a specific class, have gained influence within the conglomerate. Those are the groups behind the forces mentioned above. They do not control the President, but the President is fully aware of their power. Presently he seems to be more inclined to listen to their views than to those of the more enlightened ones.

A high official in the South once told me: “Bashir wants peace. He has bullet wounds in his body”. He does not want to return to war. However, he is very careful not to antagonize the hardliners. Bashir’s advisors often do not tell him the whole truth. Much information does not reach him, or only in a biased form. However, Bashir clearly does not make an effort to get to know the whole truth.

…The same forces that presently continue to destabilize Southern Sudan and that seek a military victory in Darfur will not allow separation of Southern Sudan, despite the constitutional guarantees. They will attack and the regime will have to follow, if it wants to stay in power. The boundaries between the North and the South have not been demarcated fully and there are still disputes concerning the precise location of the oil fields. These will be reasons for war in case the majority of the people of the South will choose in favour of independence. The final status of the three areas Abyei, South Kordofan (the Nuba Mountains) and Upper Nile State in case of a separation between North and South Sudan has not yet been decided. In these areas the Arab and the African population will be drawn into violent conflicts.

Read the whole thing on Jan Pronk’s blog if you have time. He’s one hell of a well informed individual. It would have been nice if he mentioned more details about those evil forces lurking in Khartoum though. I guess it’s time I bugged my dad and his friends with some questions. I need to enlighten myself. If I do, I’ll make sure I blog about it so I can enlighten you guys Anyways, if the war resumes, I’m afraid I’ll officially give up on Sudan. Meanwhile I’ll have to return back to my hopefull wishfull thinking. Hmmmm let’s see… 1) the Darfur crisis gets solved… we can start with this 2) Southerners vote for unity by making unity a more attractive option 3) pressure gets applied on Khartoum to fully implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which will mean a more democratic Sudan 4) the oil industry flourishes and 20-30% of profits go directly to Sudanese citizens 5) illiteracy gets irradicated in about 10-20 years 6) bla bla bla… You get the idea. That’s my wish but we can forget about it if Southerners vote for seperation and the war resumes again which most probably it will. I desperately hope I’m wrong. I really do… Time will tell.