Is this for real? Should I go out and celebrate? What’s the point of a cease-fire if the recognition conditions aren’t met anyways? Hmmm interesting. I guess that probably means, we’ll witness a period of calm which will eventually again be followed by war. So… what’s new?
SudaneseThinker
SudaneseThinker
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
It held a whole hour.
What’s the point in making deals with an enemy which has put your destruction as its sole reason for existence? An enemy which broke every single agreement, shat on every offer of peace, destroyed everything it was given and used every gesture of good will to attack? An enemy which openly states, repeatedly, that any agreement with you is worthless and will be used to try and destroy you?
*shrug*
Glory to the assorted Palestinian Organizations of Resistance. They never mention that what they’re really resisting is any chance of Palestinians or Israelis actually having normal lives. Bloody psychopaths.
And there’s not much hope for Abbas getting the groups that broke the agreement to stop and play nice,what with one of them being the military branch of HAMAS.
I’m sure Mishaal is laughing his ass off at the moment.
To all the scheming useless midgets. You can produce Nasrallahs, Arafats, Saddams and Khomeinis. Here are the facts:
All the Arab countries surrounding Israel put together do not reach by far the per capita GDP of Israel which is higher than that of Spain, Greece and Portugal and almost equal to Great Britain:
Israel’s GDP per capita up USD 5,000 since 2003
Assessment published by CIA says Israel’s average GDP currently stands at USD 20,000; Israel currently ranked among top 50 leading countries
11.26.06, 09:13
According to an assessment published by the CIA, Israel’s average GDP per capita has risen by USD 5,000 since 2003 and currently stands at USD 20,000. In terms of PPP, the GDP is higher at almost USD 25,000.
Israel is currently ranked among the top 50 leading countries.
The high growth rate and increase in GDP per capita have not influenced the quality of life of all citizens equally.
According to the best-case scenario, if the economy grows by an average 5.5 percent a year for the next 10 years and the population
grows by 1.7 percent a year, GDP will rise to USD 29,000. In terms of PPP, the GDP per capita could reach approximately USD 34,000.
Under a less optimistic scenario, GDP per capita will reach USD 22,000 (USD 27,000 in terms of PPP), provided that the economy grows by an average 3 percent a year. The optimistic scenario expects that Israel will maintain its current position, and could slightly improve its ranking among other Western countries.
Not that Hamas and Islamic ?Jihad have become suddenly moderate and peace- loving!
Where will truce lead?
If truce holds up it could serve as incentive for more positive developments
Israel has had some bad experiences with ceasefires with the Palestinians in the past, particularly those announced unilaterally. Even during Yasser Arafat’s time some of the ceasefires only held up for a few hours and others for a few days.
Often recalcitrant Palestinian factions used the violation of a truce to exact concessions and benefits from the Palestinian Authority, and more rarely it was an IDF operation that went wrong and brought about the renewal of fire.
As of now, we should wait a day or two to establish to what extent the current ceasefire is viable and stable. It would also be a test of Mahmoud Abbas’ credibility as well as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees’ ability to rule over their military wings and their militiamen.
Truce?
Qassams fired at Sderot despite truce /
Several rockets fired from Gaza short while after agreed upon truce goes into effect land in Sderot, surrounding area; no injuries reported; earlier IDF says forces left Strip; six Qassams fired at Negev area prior to ceasefire
In any case, it can already be ascertained that the primary motive for calling for a ceasefire can be attributed to the pressure emanating from the Palestinian street in the Gaza Strip and directed at the organizations and the armed factions.
Apparently, it’s not just the Palestinian political leadership, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, who are attentive to the calls and murmurings emanating from the refugee camps and the streets of the cities, but also the leaders of the more radical organizations who are not partners to the regime.
To be honest, they have no choice. They and their families have been living for almost a year amongst a population suffering from an economic and military siege. It’s not only the residents of Sderot who are suffering - the Palestinian population is also paying a heavy death toll for the “Qassam Intifada.”
Almost half the fatalities and injured in the exchange of fire in recent months are boys, women, children and elderly Palestinians. Not to mention the insufferable living conditions prevalent in the Strip and the sense of humiliation of hundreds of thousands of men who are unable to provide for their families.
Détente for gaining strength
It can be said to Mahmoud Abbas’ credit that that he knew how to take advantage of the mood on the Palestinian street. The ceasefire didn’t emanate from his personal influence and power of persuasion, but he knew how to be insistent and to offer the armed organizations a way out at the moment of truth.
He also made sure that the Israeli government - currently under heavy public pressure to put an end to the suffering of the residents of Sderot and the western Negev and having an interest in complying with the relatively modest requests made by Abbas – would offer it an honorable way out.
The leaderships of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other factions had even more important reasons for holding the fire: The losses incurred by the IDF’s operations (some 400 fatalities since July of this year), plus the fear of a broad military offensive by Israel in the near future filled a crucial role in agreeing to Abbas’ pleas.
Hamas is in need of a truce in order to reorganize itself without a broad military offensive that would ruin its process of empowerment. The other organizations are also in need of a ceasefire in order to replenish their stockpiles of Qassam rockets and other munitions; to give their people a break and to reorganize their ranks. Just as in standing armies, even guerilla and terror groups reach a breaking point following which they call for a ceasefire.
However, the main reason for the truce initiated by the Palestinians is pressure exerted by the silent population majority – it is quiet yet highly effective pressure. Therefore, the first thing Israel should do the moment it becomes apparent that the ceasefire is holding is to reward the non-combatant Palestinian population. A situation should be created whereby the Palestinian civilian population would be motivated to keep it going, and to pressure the rebellious factions to honor it.
Israel would do well to launch a humanitarian campaign that would significantly ease the plight of residents of the Gaza Strip – immediately open the crossings and grant Palestinians an initial aid package and economic benefits. Palestinian residents must be able to sense that the ceasefire is beneficial and its violation would exact a heavy toll.
From Israel’s point of view, the primary danger of a ceasefire is the continued smuggling of arms and explosives via the Philadelphi Route and the strengthening of Hamas. It is important to note that Mahmoud Abbas made a commitment on behalf of the Palestinian factions to cease “digging tunnels” but not to end smuggling.
A ceasefire binds the hands of the IDF and prevents it from taking military action to stop the strengthening of the factions; therefore, the emphasis should be on a political effort to get the Egyptians to handle the matter.
Positive signs on horizon?
The Egyptians have recently stepped up their activities in the Philadelphi Route and have even chalked up a few achievements. Two weeks ago, for example, they uncovered five smuggling tunnels in the Rafah area within one week. Even Israeli-Egyptian cooperation is currently better and more effective than in the past. However, in order to halt the smuggling, the Egyptian security forces must also take action in areas inside sovereign Egypt.
The munitions, explosives and funds funneled by Hamas, Iran and Hizbullah, pass through two main routes: From Sudan, via Egypt to Sinai and from there to the Strip through the tunnels at the Phildelphi Route and the Rafah Crossing.
The second route passes through the Mediterranean – the munitions land on the Sinai coast and even in the Delta and Nile regions, and from there they reach the Gaza Strip through the Sinai. The Egyptians are only operating along the Philadelphi Route.
Even the coordination between the intelligence forces, the Egyptian army and the Egyptian Foreign Office, involved in foiling the smuggling, is limited and is in need of improvement. Israel has already exhausted its means in pressuring the Egyptians; to obtain real results it should enlist American pressure, which may prove to be more effective in Cairo than Israel’s diplomatic efforts so far.
If the ceasefire holds up, it is likely not only to serve as a temporary relief for the residents of Sderot and the Gaza Strip, but also as leverage and an incentive for further positive developments.
It is likely to accelerate negotiations for the release of abducted soldier Gilad Shalit that is apparently at the last straight. It is also likely to allow negotiations for a ceasefire and temporary settlement in the West Bank. In the future – who knows – it may also help launch a political dialogue on a phased final settlement on the Israeli-Arab conflict.
Putting optimism aside, we currently need to focus our efforts on stabilizing the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and to ensure that it won’t turn into a boomerang that would strike back at Israel within a few months or years, as it did in Lebanon.
I don’t trust the Palestinian leadership and certianly not Hamas. But this is yet another opportunity. I would love to see the peace hold. But if Hamas thinks “hey if no state in 6 months, then its war” well…then nothing will come of it.
I think that the Islamic Jihad will likely sabotage the entire thing, Israel will respond, they will be called aggressors and off we go again.
I hope I am wrong. Geez…what sane person wouldn’t like to see this horror end. Each time something comes up…Madrid, Oslo, Camp David, Taba or whatever…I think…OK…this might work. Sure let’s leave Gaza…that will start something good, yes get out of Lebanon…then we can start some kind of a peace process. Everytime the Arafats, the Mashaal’s and the Nasrallah’s have shattered hope for peace.
I heard Kassam’s have already been fired after the the agreed truce period.
I have hope…but very little.
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